OTTAWA — As the protracted trade war with the United States nears the two-year mark with no end in sight, two Canadian provinces could head to a vote in the next couple years on whether to separate from the federation. Quebec’s separatist party secured a minority government in Monday’s general election, pledging a referendum on independence in 2029, while Alberta prepares for its own referendum on separation in less than two weeks. Despite winning too few seats to hold official party status following the last two elections, the Parti Québécois (PQ) on Monday elected 59 MNAs, just five short of a majority government. That means the province will be headed to a referendum on Quebec sovereignty in the not-so-distant future, with leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon pledging to do so — whether he wins a minority or majority government — after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office in January 2029. Quebec last held a referendum on separation in late 1995. That vote ended with the narrowest of margins, with 49.42 per cent in favour of separating, and 50.58 per cent in favour of staying in Canada. Does the PQ have a referendum mandate? But, despite winning enough seats to form government, the PQ secured just 28 per cent of the popular vote. Speaking on a panel on CTV Question Period over the weekend, pollster Nik Nanos — the founder and chief data scientist at Nanos Research — said the “big question” is whether it is “appropriate” for a party with less than 30 per cent support to launch a discussion on separation. “But the thing is, support for the PQ is exactly the same as the support for separation in the province of Quebec,” Nanos said. “Those things work in tandem.” Speaking on the same panel, CTV News political commentator Tom Mulcair said while the promised referendum may not be for a couple years, the PQ is likely to use the province’s budget to buy ads, “to pick fights with Ottawa, to try to get Quebecers to see that Canada is not a rich, prosperous, free country.” “It’s the Gulag, and we’ve got to break away. That’s their thesis,” said Mulcair, who is also a former federal NDP leader. “That’s what they’re going to be trying to sell to people, and they’re going to be using all the resources of the province to try to get there.” Still, with a minority government, the PQ will need the support from at least a handful of MNAs from other parties to approve a referendum question in the National Assembly. While the left-leaning Quebec Solidaire — which won nine seats Monday night — supports Quebec sovereignty, it’s unclear where the party stands on a referendum. There’s also the question of whether the PQ’s government will last until 2029 when Trump leaves the White House. While there are exceptions, minority governments in Canada and Quebec don’t tend to last very long, holding onto power for an average of 18 months to two years. Speaking to reporters on Parliament Hill on his way into a cabinet meeting Tuesday morning, Prime Minister Mark Carney said he spoke with St-Pierre Plamondon earlier in the day and congratulated him on his win. Carney also said it’s a “critical time” for Quebec and for Canada, and that “it’s a time to act.” Asked about the PQ’s promise of a referendum, Carney said it’s his job as prime minister to work with all provincial governments toward co-operative federalism. Also speaking with reporters on Parliament Hill Tuesday morning, Canadian Identity and Culture Minister Marc Miller said the federal government is willing to work with St-Pierre Plamondon “to get things done” for both Quebec and Canada. Miller, who also represents a Montreal riding at the federal level, said he understands the sense of alienation and frustration that can come from certain provinces, but that he also believes the federal government is working well with those provinces to address concerns. Alberta also headed for a referendum With the issue of separation set to once again be at the forefront of Quebec political debate, another province is also grappling with its future in the federation. On Oct. 19, Albertans will answer a referendum question asking whether they want to remain a part of Canada, or whether the province should “commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.” Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has repeatedly said she is on the side of Alberta staying within Canada, though she’s faced criticism for not actively campaigning for the stay side of the referendum question, and has dodged questions on whether she bears any culpability if the vote does not go the federalist way. Former PQ leader Jean-François Lisée, meanwhile, said in an interview on CTV Power Play with Vassy Kapelos on Monday that the 1995 referendum gave the rest of Canada the impression that Quebec “was a dog that barks but doesn’t bite.” He said the bigger issue for Ottawa is not Quebec or Alberta independence referenda, which could both potentially not get anywhere, but rather working with St-Pierre Plamondon as premier. “If you thought that Danielle Smith was a tough customer with Carney in terms of their provincial requests and even her stance within the Canadian team towards the Trump government, well, now there’s another tough customer that will be at the table starting tonight,” Lisée said. CAQ loses all its seats, party status Monday’s election also saw the collapse of the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ), which previously held two consecutive majority governments under former leader François Legault. The embattled former premier announced his resignation in January amid caucus turmoil and plunging polling numbers. He was replaced by Christine Frechette in April. But, the ongoing trade war with the United States and looming threat of Trump did not help Frechette in this election the way she and her party might have hoped. The party did not win a single seat on Monday.
