Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim could be facing a difficult race for re-election this October if a new poll proves to be correct. The poll, published Thursday by Pallas Data, finds more eligible Vancouver voters disapproving of Sim’s performance as mayor than approving of it (48 per cent disapprove, 28 per cent approve and 24 per cent are neutral or not sure). The largest share of respondents—34 per cent—say they “strongly disapprove” of Sim’s performance, compared to 14 per cent who say they somewhat disapprove, 20 per cent who somewhat approve and eight per cent who say they strongly approve. Perhaps relatedly, the survey finds Sim trailing Green Party Coun. Pete Fry in the race for mayor. Eighteen per cent of respondents say they would cast their mayoral ballots for Fry, compared to 14 per cent for Sim. Two others—Vancouver Liberal candidate and Sim’s former chief of staff Kareem Allam and former city councillor and TEAM candidate Colleen Hardwick—are in double digits, with 12 and 10 per cent voting intention, respectively. Again, 34 per cent of respondents are undecided, so there is plenty of room for any of the candidates—including those polling under 10 per cent—to grow their support. Also worth noting is the survey’s relatively small sample size and correspondingly large margin of error. The poll was conducted from July 20 through 24 via Interactive Voice Response technology—automated phone calls without live interviewers. A total of 312 adults ages 18 and older who live in Vancouver and are eligible to vote in municipal elections responded, and both cellphones and landlines were called. More than half of the respondents—161 total—were ages 65 and older, compared to 90 who were ages 35 to 64 and 61 who were ages 18 to 34. The data was weighted to 2021 census data for age, gender and region, to account for sampling variance. A sample of 312 carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, meaning Fry could theoretically be leading Sim by as wide a margin as 23.5 per cent to 8.5 per cent, or Sim could be in the lead by as much as 19.5 per cent to 12.5 per cent. The poll was commissioned by the Conservative Electors Association, a municipal political party running candidates in local elections across B.C. this fall.
