Canadian Natural Resources will not move ahead with any mid- to long-term oil sands expansion projects until the details of a recently signed memorandum of understanding with the Canadian and Alberta governments are cemented in binding legal agreements, the company’s CEO said on Thursday. This means that the company’s approximately $650 million, 30,000-barrel-per-day Jackfish project and its approximately $2.5 billion, 70,000-bpd Pike 2 project remain on hold, as do longer-term projects such as the proposed 150,000-bpd Jackpine mine expansion, CEO Scott Stauth told a conference call. Early engineering work for all of these projects had been slated for this year, according to a 2025 investor presentation. Stauth’s comments are the latest indication that Canadian oil producers are not rushing to increase output despite large-scale policy reforms promised by the federal and Alberta governments in an effort to spur growth in Canada’s oil industry. “It’s extremely important that we get this right,” Stauth said of the ongoing negotiations with both levels of government. Major oil sands CEOs — including Stauth — signed a non-binding agreement in July with Alberta and Canada that aimed to lay out conditions for the advancement of a carbon capture and storage project, known as Pathways, which would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the oil sands. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has endorsed Alberta’s vision of a new 1 million bpd export pipeline to the Pacific coast, but said his support is contingent on the Pathways project going ahead. Many of the proposed policy changes contained in the agreement — including agreements around carbon pricing, financial supports, and permitting — have not yet been drafted into final legislation. “All the components have to work together to make it a total success,” Stauth said in an interview. Suncor Energy on Wednesday said it is not yet willing to accelerate plans for production increases, while pipeline operator Enbridge said last week it is postponing plans for a second phase of its Mainline pipeline expansion. Canadian Natural, Canada’s largest oil producer, raised its full-year production forecast for the second time this year and beat analysts’ estimates for second-quarter profit on Thursday, as record production and stronger crude prices boosted earnings. The company now expects 2026 production to average between 1.637 million and 1.682 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), up from its previous forecast of 1.615 million to 1.665 million boepd. The Calgary, Alberta-based company posted an adjusted profit of $2.19 per share for the three months ended June 30, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $1.90 per share, according to data compiled by LSEG. Canadian Natural said its quarterly output grew to 1.68 million boepd, from 1.42 million boepd a year earlier. --- Reporting by Amanda Stephenson in Calgary and Varun Sahay in Bengaluru; Editing by Jonathan Ananda, Devika Syamnath and Nia Williams
