After a long night of back-and-forth lead changes in the riding Courtenay-Comox, NDP candidate Ronna-Rae Leonard was finally declared the winner to a room of cheering supporters.
With all polls reporting, Leonard, a former Courtenay councillor, edged out Liberal candidate Jim Benninger by just nine votes in one of the most nail-biting finishes in the province.
“I’ve been saying all evening it’s like being in labour. You’re wanting to be delivered,” said Rae after claiming victory.
But it remains to be seen whether she’ll be celebrating after election officials conduct a final count of votes later this month, including absentee ballots.
While the NDP accepted Leonard's win, the Liberals aren’t conceding defeat just yet.
“I’m not sure that we can really say that we have a winner tonight,” Benninger said late Tuesday. “Nine votes out of the number of votes cast, I think it’s too early. We have to wait for the process to play out.”
The recount will take place beginning May 22, and with up to 1,500 absentee ballots expected to be added to the total the riding could still go either way.
“The absentee ballots now become absolutely crucial in this riding,” said Paul Whyte, a former political science instructor at North Island College. “Historically it’s obviously members of the military, given that we do have an air force base here, and some snowbirds that would have passed absentee ballots.”
While some believe that could swing the riding in favour of Benninger, a former base commander at 19 Wing Comox, Whyte says most absentee voters went orange in the riding in 2013.
“The last time we had absentee ballots, the NDP actually won those. Not by huge amounts, but they won significantly,” he said.
If he does end up winning the riding, Benninger’s seat would give Christy Clark the 44 she needs to form a majority government.
If Courtenay-Comox remains orange after the final count, Whyte said the party leaders will likely try to gain support from the Greens.
“I think if this remains NDP, and so at the end of this month we’re left with the same result we had last night, then you’re going to see the movements between the prospective leaders and whether Christy Clark will indeed reach out to Andrew Weaver, in particular,” he said. “We probably can anticipate there might be some backroom calls between now and [the recount], but nothing official.”
Final vote counts will get underway on May 22, and results should be available by May 24.
With a report from CTV Vancouver Island’s Gord Kurbis
