As Americans prepare to head to the polls Tuesday, the results of the U.S. midterm elections could have implications well beyond the country’s borders. In Windsor-Essex, where the economy is closely tied to Michigan and the broader American market, the outcome could affect everything from cross-border trade and the auto industry to family relationships. The midterms are held halfway through a U.S. president’s four-year term. Voters will decide all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, potentially shifting control of Congress and the ability to advance or challenge President Donald Trump’s agenda. Michigan is among the states attracting national attention, with Republican Mike Rogers facing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed for a U.S. Senate seat. The contest could help determine which party controls the Senate. For people on the Canadian side of the border, the implications are very real. “Pierre Trudeau said that we’re lying next to an elephant, and if it rolls over, we’re in trouble,” said Windsor resident John Simpson. Simpson says he follows American politics as little as possible but recognizes the potential consequences for the local economy and relationships with family members across the border. He says jobs are among his biggest concerns, along with the changing experience of travelling to the U.S. Doug Weeks, a downtown Windsor resident, says the election could be a deciding factor for Canada, particularly when it comes to tariffs and the future of the auto industry. Windsor’s economy has long depended on the automotive sector, he says, and the uncertainty surrounding Stellantis and other manufacturers is concerning. “We’re very dependent on what happens in the U.S. in terms of the commerce, in terms of the policies, everything,” Weeks explained. Debbie Mullins, who lives in Kingsville, also worries about the potential consequences for auto workers. Her daughter and son-in-law work in the industry. “If the auto industry closes down, Windsor closes down. Basically,” she said. Mullins hopes the election could help improve relations between Canada and the U.S., including making it easier for families to visit one another. She says she has not seen some of her family members in years and believes the current political climate has driven people apart. University of Windsor political science professor Jamey Essex says the midterms provide Americans with an opportunity to weigh in on the direction of the country and the policies pursued during Trump’s presidency. But he cautions against expecting an immediate change, even if Democrats make significant gains. “I don’t think things are going to shift immediately,” Essex told CTV News, noting Trump will continue working with the current Congress until newly elected lawmakers take office in January. Essex says a change in control could give Democrats greater ability to challenge the administration, including on tariffs. However, the party has not laid out a clear path for reversing those policies. A divided Congress could also lead to gridlock rather than a significant shift in direction. “I don’t think you can look at anyone on that side of the border as a sort of savior,” Essex said. Essex noted that the election is an important test of whether Americans support the current direction of their country’s relationship with Canada, particularly at a time of economic and political uncertainty. Not everyone following the election is necessarily optimistic about what comes next. Tilbury resident Marcel Marchand hopes things eventually return to normal, while Windsor resident Lisette Kelly says she is concerned about changes to everyday freedoms. Another Windsor resident, who identified herself as Grandma Martina, says she would rather focus on something more positive. She says she’s paying more attention to Canada’s women’s hockey team than American politics. However, some say for Windsor-Essex, the outcome could be difficult to ignore.
