Canada’s retaliatory tariffs took effect Tuesday, marking the latest escalation in the trade war with the United States and setting the stage for a political battle over rising costs in the lead-up to the U.S. midterm elections. Ottawa’s tariffs are a dollar-for-dollar response to Washington’s 50 per cent tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian products imposed three weeks ago after trade talks broke down. The counter tariffs—which target everything from makeup and kitchen appliances to smartphones and dairy products—appear to be focused on Republican-held battleground states, according to one geopolitics expert. “Given that the United States is heading towards midterm elections, many of the states that are impacted by these counter-tariff announcements are ones where the Republicans are either vulnerable in or in ones where they have to make gains,” SFU professor James Horncastle said in a Tuesday interview with CTV’s Your Morning Vancouver. “Specifically, we see Canada targeting Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, which are ones where Democrats could make potential gains and thus weaken Trump’s position.” Horncastle adds that many of the products targeted by Canada’s retaliatory tariffs were selected because domestic alternatives are available, allowing Ottawa to put pressure on U.S. exporters while limiting the impact on Canadian consumers. While some price increases are unavoidable, Horncastle says the latest escalation in the trade dispute will ultimately test how much economic pressure Canadians and Americans are willing to bear as Ottawa looks to reduce its dependence on the U.S. market. The latest round of counter-tariffs builds on measures first introduced by Ottawa in March 2025, when Canada responded to U.S. tariffs with 25 per cent duties on roughly $30 billion worth of American imports. Some of those retaliatory tariffs were removed in September 2025, making it difficult to measure their success. However, in many Canadian provinces, a ban on U.S. alcohol products has remained in place since early last year—a measure Horncastle says has caused significant damage to America’s liquor industry. “Even if these tariffs end up basically being rolled back, there’s still an indication that Canadians might not be willing buy as much as they did in the past and that could have severe long-term consequences for that industry,” he explained. Rick Larsen, the U.S. Representative for Washington’s Second Congressional District, says the tariffs could also have long-term consequences for his state’s job market. “Our own state projects that we’re going to lose up to 30,000 jobs between now and about three years from now because of higher tariffs,” Larsen told CTV Your Morning Vancouver on Tuesday. He says 7,500 of those at-risk jobs are directly tied to Canadian companies in his district, just south of B.C.’s border. “The tariffs are already costing families about $2,200 more a year,” he added. “Canadians are making a choice—an understandable one given the circumstances, but it is hurting us here right across the border.” When asked why British Columbians should care how these tariffs are impacting his constituents, Larsen pointed to cross-border employment. “You have teachers who live in Canada teaching in our school districts, or hospital workers who live in Canada who work in our hospitals,” he explained. Larsen concluded by saying many members of Congress are working hard to reduce or reverse U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods by stepping into U.S. Supreme Court cases. “We have our own interests as members of Congress representing people to reverse these tariffs,” said Larsen. “If and when Democrats take majority this fall and come into office next year, dropping tariffs will be a critical part of dropping prices for Americans.”
