B.C. forecasters predict Super El Niño could bring more drought

Drought conditions, like those pictured in Vernon, B.C., have been present through much of the province's south coast and Interior. B.C.'s River Forecast Centre reported lower-than-normal snowpacks and heightened drought conditions leading up to the summer months.

Much of B.C. saw increased drought conditions heading into the summer, and a forecaster said Super El Niño conditions are projected to bring much of the same in 2027.

An El Niño, or the ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and a Super El Niño are global climate events that see a warming of the Pacific Ocean’s surface waters off the coast of South America and are caused by a change in trade wind circulation patterns, according to the World Meteorological Association. The change in the Pacific Ocean causes an atmospheric shift, and weather patterns change as a result. The last El Niño began in June 2023 and continued into April 2024. The WMO confirmed current El Niño conditions intensified in early July.

Dave Campbell is the head of B.C.’s River Forecast Centre, which monitors river-related issues, including floods, droughts, and consequentially, snowpack levels across the province. In an interview with CTV News, he explained that seasonal weather often comes down to what phase we’re in: El Niño, or the flip side, La Niña.

“When we look at B.C., one of the biggest impacts that we do see for El Niño is in the wintertime temperatures, and so it tends to end up being warmer across the province, but even more specifically across the southern half of the province,” he said, noting this is a driver for the winters where we see more rain rather than snow.

“It’s quite a long process, but it can have that kind of longer-ranging impact.”

June 2026 data from the River Forecast Centre outlined drastically lower-than-normal snowpack levels recorded in the province’s Interior and south coast this year. Early melt from our snowpacks and a warmer winter have been heavy contributors to strengthening drought conditions, which, in turn, compound to create a water availability issue, negatively impacting wildfire season by drying out watersheds and turning forests into far more vulnerable fuel.

Looking ahead

Campbell said the Super El Niño likely won’t play much of a role in B.C.’s summer 2026 weather forecast, but it’s more about what the global phenomenon brings to the province moving forward. He notes that, to get a more accurate scope, it’s important to look back at the last event with the same strength, which happened in 2015 and 2016.

“We saw really significant impacts in B.C. … that’s our benchmark record low snow year, particularly for Vancouver Island, the South Coast, and areas in the southern Interior,” he said.

As Campbell explained, conditions in 2026 have been quite similar to those in 2015 and 2016 in terms of snowpack levels, but without being caused by an El Niño. He said that many of B.C.’s rivers are at record-low levels of flow for the time of year, raising the question of what 2027 will bring with El Niño-motivated conditions in tow.

“Looking forward, we can probably expect a similar year to this year next year,” said Campbell. “It could be worse even, in terms of snowpack.”

The positive in that, Campbell adds, is that the experience of dealing with these snowpack levels and drought conditions helps prepare for the next time those issues arise, specifically in terms of water management and availability.

“When we do see these events, I think it really challenges that water side of things, and we start to understand where our vulnerabilities are, where the challenges are,” he said.

B.C. salmon in drought conditions

Record-low water levels in the province’s rivers and streams can be of consequence to salmon.

Recent studies from the University of British Columbia found that salmon, specifically younger salmon in the province, are more vulnerable to rising temperatures than previously measured.

The data were collected through two separate but related research projects, both of which aimed to determine the risks salmon face in warming rivers. Dr. Scott G. Hinch is a featured researcher on the project and said, in a UBC release, that his team worked with Fisheries and Oceans Canada and the National Institute of Aquatic Resources in Denmark to analyze two- and six-month-old salmon, referred to as fry and parr, respectively, in B.C.’s Nicola River.

Hinch wrote that temperatures brought by the current El Niño conditions could cause issues for returning adult salmon as they find their way through B.C.’s rivers, facing drought and warm temperatures.

On young salmon who will spend another year or two in fresh water, like the fry and parr analyzed in these two studies, Hinch said their “situation is more concerning.”

“A ‘super’ El Niño is projected to bring warm coastal waters, poor food availability and abundant predators, and a large blob of warm ocean water is also approaching our coast, reflecting cumulative climate change impacts,” he said.

Impacts beyond B.C.’s rivers

With concerns about drought come concerns about other sectors in B.C.

Drought, historically, has spelled trouble for farmers, and the province’s agriculture and food minister said 2026 will bring its share of difficulty to the industry.

“B.C. farmers have experienced extreme weather for a number of years, and this year is going to be a difficult one too,” Lana Popham said, in a statement to CTV News Vancouver.

“I’ve met with producers across the province and seen first-hand the challenges producers are facing with extreme weather.”

Popham said the province is working to develop programs that help those in agricultural production through times of crisis as well, with information from the ministry detailing this infrastructure being aimed at ensuring food can be grown in these situations.

“Whether it’s drought, wildfires, floods or Super El Niño events, B.C.’s agricultural production, along with our water security and food security, is intricately tied to climate change,” she added, in a statement.

“We will continue to work with and listen to farmers, and work collaboratively with the B.C. Agriculture Council, B.C. Dairy and B.C. Cattlemen’s Association so we can be there with the support they need.”

The ministry said $100 million has been invested in projects that build or improve water storage and supply systems in water-scarce or drought-prone areas, like B.C.’s southern Interior. Another $20 million is being invested in the Agriculture Water Infrastructure Program, which looks to improve dams, reservoirs, pumping systems, and other water management technology used to combat drought.

Campbell adds that, sometimes, individuals, organizations, or communities may not know the impacts of drought until an extreme or unprecedented event happens and brings their weaknesses to the forefront.

“Conversely, you can find those areas where we do have resilience and capacity to deal with and manage these changes that are happening within the water and climate system.”