A new poll suggests that the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) would form Quebec’s next government if the general election were held today. The Mainstreet poll, commissioned by the CAQ and obtained by CTV News, found that 25.4 per cent of all voters surveyed would vote for the CAQ, led by Christine Fréchette, if the provincial election were held today. The Parti Québécois (PQ), led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, polled second with 22.8 per cent, followed by the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), led by Charles Milliard, at 18.2 per cent. The Conservative Party (PCQ), led by Éric Duhaime, followed at 14.6 per cent, and Québec solidaire (QS), co-led by Ruba Ghazal, received 5 per cent. About 1.6 per cent of respondents chose another party. The poll surveyed 2,145 Quebecers aged 18 and older from Sept. 11 to 13. Respondents were weighted according to four regions - the Island of Montreal and Laval, the Montreal suburbs, the Quebec City region, and the rest of Quebec - as well as gender, age, education level, yearly earnings, and language. Fréchette was most popular among female voters, earning 29.4 per cent of women surveyed, while Plamondon was most popular among male voters, earning 26.1 per cent of their support. Quebec Solidaire polled last for both male and female voters, receiving 5.1 per cent among men and 4 per cent among women. Plamondon was most popular among respondents aged 18-34 and 35-49, earning 24.2 per cent and 24.9 per cent of the vote. Fréchette was most popular among voters aged 50 to 64 and those 65 and older, receiving 24 per cent and 33.8 per cent. Milliard performed best among respondents with a university degree or higher, receiving 28.7 per cent support. Fréchette was most popular among respondents with a high school diploma or less, receiving 36.1 per cent. Fréchette polled highest among respondents in the Montreal suburbs and the rest of Quebec, while Milliard was most popular among respondents on the Island of Montreal and in Laval. Plamondon polled highest in the Quebec City region. By income, Plamondon was most popular among respondents earning $100,000 or more annually, while Fréchette polled highest among respondents in all income categories below $100,000. Milliatd was most popular among non-francophone voters, receiving 47.1 per cent of the vote, while Fréchette was most popular among francophone voters, receiving 30.9 per cent. This poll comes after Leger’s latest poll, released Sept. 14, which showed the Parti Québécois leading with 29 per cent of the vote among decided voters. The Quebec Liberal Party followed at 23 per cent, while the CAQ stood at 21 per cent, representing a two-point drop since the beginning of the month and a three-point drop since last month. Methodology Mainstreet Research surveyed 2,145 Quebecers aged 18 or older between September 11 and 13 via interactive voice response, using cell phones and landlines. The results were weighted across four major regions — Montreal and Laval, the Montreal suburbs, the Quebec City region, and the rest of Quebec — based on gender, age, education level, and language to reflect data from the 2021 census. The regions were then weighted according to their share of valid votes cast in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error is ±2.1%, 19 times out of 20. It is higher in the subsamples.
