A new poll suggests Alberta’s referendum has taken a toll on Premier Danielle Smith’s popularity, though she continues to see strong support among her own voters. According to the ThinkHQ survey, 59 per cent of Albertans disapprove of Smith’s performance as premier, compared with 39 per cent who approve. Nearly half of respondents, 49 per cent, strongly disapprove of Smith, while 21 per cent strongly approve. But according to the poll, neither of Alberta’s two main political party leaders is particularly popular. NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi fares slightly better, with 44 per cent approval, and 48 per cent disapproval. ThinkHQ’s tracking shows Smith’s approval has steadily declined since spring of 2025, when public discussion around the referendum began ramping up. Before that period, her approval generally hovered in the mid-40 per cent range. It has since declined by about six percentage points. “Perhaps the highest cost for the premier in this referendum business has been lost opportunities,” says Marc Henry, President of ThinkHQ’s Public Affairs. “She’s inked a deal with Ottawa to build a new pipeline to the west coast; the province’s finances are awash in money; there have been some positive accomplishments over the past year which have been overshadowed by the public preoccupation with the referendum. So at a time when one might expect the premier’s numbers to ‘tick up’, instead they’ve ticked down.” Henry adds the premier’s approval appears to have plateaued, suggesting the political fallout from the referendum may not be as severe as some have anticipated. “It’s just the fact that we’ve had an 18-month distraction from far more important issues than a referendum about separation,” says Henry. UCP voters continue to support Smith Despite the broader decline in popularity, Smith continues to have the support of most UCP voters. The survey found 73 per cent of respondents who voted UCP in the last provincial election approve of Smith’s performance, compared with 26 per cent who disapprove. That support has slipped from roughly 80 per cent a year ago, suggesting the events of the past year have cost the premier some support within her own voter base. However, Henry says Smith’s current numbers do not suggest her leadership is in jeopardy ahead of the upcoming AGM. He points to former premier Jason Kenney, who had just 50 per cent approval among UCP voters about a month before his leadership review vote. By comparison, Smith’s current approval among UCP voters remains significantly higher. Nenshi, meanwhile, has 87 per cent approval among those who voted NDP in the last provincial election. ThinkHQ’s survey was done online between Oct. 21 and 27 with 1,160 Albertans taking part. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
