The days of bidding wars on nearly every Toronto home are long over but so too could be the era of buyers holding all the cards, with one new report suggesting the GTA may finally be heading towards a “balanced” housing market. Earlier this week, new data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board found the market is beginning to tighten as fewer homeowners list their properties for sale. Industry experts say it’s a noticeable shift from a heavily favoured buyers market which followed a frenzied seller’s market five years ago. The average home price in Toronto across all property types peaked at $1,334,544 in February, 2022 in the wake of a pandemic-era market frenzy that was driven by low interest rates and more flexible remote work arrangements. But average prices have dropped more than 25 per cent since that peak as the market effectively went from one extreme to another. In 2025, only 62,433 home were sold in Toronto, representing the lowest total since 2000, according to TRREB data. “This has been a long time since we’ve seen that sort of scenario unfold, and I think that could be indicative that we’re kind of at the bottom of the current cycle,” TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer told CP24. What did the report find? According to the report, July home sales dipped just 0.9 per cent compared with a year earlier to 5,995 transactions, while new listings fell nearly 18 per cent to 14,484. Meanwhile, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the report highlights that sales did increase from June while listings declined, pointing to a gradually tightening market. Home prices too also slightly dipped. In July, the reports found the average selling price was $1,003,956, down 4.5 per cent from a year ago. “As you look at pricing on a month-over-month basis, especially after you account for the time of year, we’re starting to see things level off, and I think that’s indicative of slightly tighter market conditions,” Mercer said. Buyers and sellers meeting in the middle A balanced market generally means neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage. Homes tend to sell closer to asking price, negotiations become more typical and supply better matches demand. A member of The Agency Toronto West, Managing Director, James Milonas said that’s increasingly what he’s seeing with his clients, particularly in the freehold market. “Most definitely more of a balanced market versus a buyer-centric market. I think the condo segment is still very buyer-driven, but I think in the freehold segment, it’s a little bit more balanced at this point,” he said. He added that buyers have become more comfortable with today’s borrowing costs, while sellers have accepted they can no longer price homes as if it were 2021. “Buyers have more confidence overall. They’ve realized that the interest rates are the interest rates. They’ve realized that sellers have come down to realistic price points,” he said. Perhaps the biggest change, Milonas said, is how negotiations themselves have evolved. “Today more parties on both sides are more receptive to the ping pong match of shoving the ball back and forth,” he said. Just six months ago, he said, sellers often ignored offers well below asking. Today, buyers and sellers are far more willing to negotiate toward a middle ground. The last time the market was balanced If the GTA is indeed moving toward a balanced market, it would be the first time in years, one expert says. Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage and Bridgemarq Real Estate Services, said the last time the region experienced anything close to balanced conditions was in 2019, after the federal mortgage stress test cooled the market and before the pandemic sent housing into a period of dramatic swings. Since then, the GTA has fell from one extreme to another with market highs in 2021 to a brief shift earlier this year where buyers held strong negotiating power. “Those two extremes have disappeared, and now negotiations are tending to be pretty close to the list price if the home was priced to market,” Soper added. Soper said today’s market is beginning to resemble a healthier middle ground, where neither side has a decisive advantage, adding that there is no point in trying to time the market. “You don’t need to time the market in this kind of a balanced market… you truly can take your time and shop around," he said. What comes next? While listings have fallen and prices appear to be stabilizing, Mercer said many would-be buyers remain on the sidelines waiting for greater certainty around borrowing costs amid the trade war with the U.S. Soper believes that hesitation has more to do with “consumer psychology” than affordability. Instead, he pointed to stronger-than-expected economic growth in Canada, noting his forecasts show the country’s economy expanding at a faster pace than the United States. “We’re forecasting Canada to produce an annualized GDP growth rate of 3.4 per cent in the second quarter, and the United States is expected to fall to 1.5 per cent. So we’re growing at over twice the rate of the U.S,” he said, adding that “their economy’s been hammered by the cost of the Iranian war of choice.” Mercer noted that if prices continue to stabilize, confidence could return and encourage even more buyers to enter the market. “If we see some support for pricing, we’ll start to see more people move off the sidelines and back into the market because they’ll have more confidence that the value of their investment is going to hold up over time,” he said. --- Have you recently purchased a home? Are you a first-time homebuyer or seller currently navigating the market? We want to hear from you about your recent experience. Share your story by emailing us at torontonews@bellmedia.ca with your name, general location, and phone number in case we want to follow up. Your comments may be used in a future story.
