Olivia Chow leading Brad Bradford in Toronto mayoral race but gap has tightened: poll

David Valentin of Liaison Strategies breaks down the latest poll numbers that shows Olivia Chow leading Brad Bradford in Toronto’s mayoral race.

A new poll shows that Olivia Chow is maintaining her lead in the Toronto mayoral race against Brad Bradford but the east-end councillor is gaining ground.

Released Tuesday, Liaison Strategies surveyed 1,000 Toronto residents from June 28 to June 30 and found that Chow holds 49 per cent support among decided voters to Bradford’s 40 per cent.

David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said that while Chow’s support in that cohort slipped slightly since May, Bradford’s has grown.

“This is still Olivia Chow’s race. She leads by nine points among decided voters and eight points among all voters. But the movement since May is toward Bradford. Among decided voters, Chow is essentially flat, moving from 50 per cent to 49 per cent, while Bradford is up from 37 per cent to 40 per cent,” Valentin said.

Among all voters, the polls shows that Bradford has moved from 28 per cent to 32 per cent, but dropped among undecided voters from 24 per cent to 20 per cent.

Meanwhile, Chow’s approval rating is still positive, but has softened since the last poll. Fifty-one per cent of respondents say they approve of her time as mayor, while 43 per cent disapprove.

According to Liaison, Bradford’s biggest “problem” as he vies for Toronto’s top job is that he is still unknown to nearly half of the city.

“Thirteen per cent are not sure, and 35 per cent say they are not familiar with him. That means nearly half the city either does not know Bradford or has not made up its mind about him. There is an opportunity in that, but also a risk. Voters are open to learning more about him, but he is not yet as defined as the mayor,” Valentin wrote.

Torontonians will head to the polls on Oct. 26.

6 out of 10 Torontonians approve of FIFA World Cup hosting duties

Also included in the poll was a question about Toronto’s FIFA World Cup hosting duties.

Sixty-one per cent of respondents said that hosting six matches of the tournament has been a good thing for Toronto, including 23 per cent who said it was a “very” good thing.

Twenty-nine per cent said hosting the international soccer competition was a bad thing.

“The caveat is that the disruption is real. Eighteen per cent say World Cup crowds, road closures, or events changed their commute or travel plans, and another 18 per cent say they avoided downtown. Downtown residents are much more likely to say their travel changed,” Valentin said.

The city hosted five group stage matches and one knockout game at Toronto Stadium at a cost of $380 million.

Methodology

Participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.