James Moore on the trade fight and what’s next

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James Moore is a former federal cabinet minister under prime minister Stephen Harper, and is a contributing columnist for CTVNews.ca.

After a weekend to absorb the fallout from Donald Trump’s newest attack on Canada, some evident truths have presented themselves and some apparent questions remain in front of us as Canadians.

• Trade War Coverage on CTVNews.ca

Certain truths need to be accepted for a relative Canadian consensus to emerge, and clarity about the questions in front of us need to crystallize so they can be debated and answered in good faith with substance.

First, the truths:

1. Prime Minister Mark Carney did the right thing to walk away from an awful deal – at least the “deal” that he has outlined and (apparently) shared with provincial premiers.

The precedent it would have established, the acceptance of bad faith, the approval and entrenchment of awful continental economics and the assumption of an honest partner in the deal, are each on their own appropriate rationale to have said “no.”

• America is our historic friend and ally, but Trump will never be trusted by Canadians. We have seen and heard too much for too long and the relationship is irreconcilable. Not between American and Canada, but between Trump and Canadians.

Canadians are aligned in standing firm against an antagonistic and toxic president and they will remain so for the remainder of Trump’s last mandate as President of the United States.

Canadians have locked in their judgment of this situation, and it would take the miracle of miracle agreements to turn this around. Public opinion data is clear and consistent in the wake of the latest Trump attacks and insults and Canadians have had enough.

• Donald Trump is not representative of America’s thinking regarding Canada or tariffs. A clear super majority of Americans reject Donald Trump’s tariff policy and are bewildered by his hostility to Canada.

Evidence of this can be found in the lack of voices in support of his new tariff over the weekend in American political discourse. Weak and faint, generic support for “getting good deals” can be heard echoing around here and there, but this policy has no deep support in the blue states, in the red states, in Congress, in the business community, or with the American people broadly.

• This is going to be tough. It is one thing for Canadians to talk tough, to dislike Trump, to flare up with jingoism in a time of unfair attack, all of it is understandable.

But we are on the precipice of deep economic hurt for many Canadians for a protracted period. We need to be sober about this, and governments need to do proper analysis of both immediate impacts and long-term business model shifts that may not return should these tariffs last for many months.

A few suggestions on a path forward:

• Be more transparent. The clarity and strength of the prime minister’s press conference after the collapse of the talks was strong and reassuring in the moment. But it was insufficient on its own.

Canadians have been both united and patient over the past year and a half as Prime Minister Carney has exercised his mandate, and in recent weeks, stakeholders, premiers, parliamentarians, all Canadians, have held firm and largely respected the government’s responsibility to negotiate and engage in negotiations on behalf of Canadians.

Now that the window has apparently closed on this chapter for negotiated tariff relief, it is time for greater openness with Canadians to fortify our resolve through clarity of context.

• Retaliate, yes, but how? The government has announced a “dollar for dollar” $20 billion-in-tariffs strategy that will hit American goods and services destined for Canadian businesses and consumers.

The government needs to be transparent on the formula being used to impose these tariffs, sober about the differential regional impacts of their actions (and mindful about the national unity consequences), be open to consultation on mitigation of the impacts, and be honest with Canadians about the hit this is going to have on Canada.

• Plan past Trump. Yes, the issues of today need to be addressed as the days tick by and the challenges of now need to be triaged. But somewhere in the current government (and in the Conservative Party, who aspires to govern soon) some core questions need to be considered about where we are going on trade. Is CUSMA at genuine risk of not being renewed in the coming years?

If so, what does that do to capital allocation decisions in autos, steel, agricultural processing and the like? Are Canadian businesses and investors starting to price in a “no CUSMA” as a base case rather than a tail risk – and if so, what does that mean for government policy?

• Recall Parliament. There are currently 338 Members of Canada’s Parliament (341 at the end of the month) who reflect different interests, values, and regions, and they should be heard. They – and their constituents – have anxieties about what’s next and proposals to champion.

Let them be heard. We are in a trade war and a rising emerging economics crisis for many Canadians. If Parliament doesn’t exist to deliberate on matters such as this, then it is not clear to me what it is for. Bring everyone back next week.

• Continue to communicate to Americans. Canada’s relationship with America goes deeper than the relationship between Prime Minister Carney and President Trump. There will be a time when all current political leaders’ cycle through and new ones emerge.

The process of sustaining the long-term interests of the North American partnership far outweigh the crisis of this moment. Most Americans have no fight with Canadians and wish these tariffs would go away.

They need to know that their voices matter, that their votes have power, that these policies hurt America, and that they should choose prosperity, security and long-term stability in their relationship with Canada.

Canadians want to be part of the fight for Canada in this trade and tariff war. Trust that Canadians can handle the challenges and can mitigate the risks and difficulties of the way ahead. Bring Parliament back, open the books, and let Canadians meet this moment as what we actually are: sober, united, and not afraid of the fight ahead.