Under foggy, grey skies, voting is underway in Greater Victoria.
Weather for advance voting wasn’t much better with cloudy skies in the Capital Region and rain in Vancouver. Political pundits often blame bad weather for a low voter turnout. But is there a statistically proven connection?
“I try to think of Canadians of being more hardy,” says Janni Aragon, political scientist at the University of Victoria, “people are really jazzed with this election and they’re really interested in getting out and voting, so I don’t think if we were to have a weird wind storm, or rain storm, I think people would still vote. We saw more than 3 million cast their votes early, so I’m hopeful we’ll see an increase overall in turnout.”
A 2007 study published in the Journal of Politics specifically looked at the relationship between meteorological conditions and lower levels of voter turnout in American elections. The research found that, when compared to normal conditions, rain significantly reduces voter participation by a rate of just less than one per cent per inch, while an inch of snow reduces attendance by almost 0.5 per cent.
North of the border, the theory may not ring true.
Statistics Canada reports voter turnout of 79 per cent for the 1963 federal election when spring-time weather had clear skies in some centers, and significant snowfall in others. Participation hit an all-time low in 2008 at 58.5 per cent. Conditions were more favourable that October with rain and wind across the country. No major snow.
Today’s relatively pleasant weather across the country can only be good for voter turnout. “I think people are already interested in this election and that were going to see an increase in voter turnout and the nice weather will only make it easier,” says Aragon.
So get your umbrella or sunglasses; parka or ski boots. Because in the true north strong and free, it seems bad weather isn’t a good enough excuse to ignore this election.
