Is Canada going to see a ‘super El Niño’ in 2026? Here’s everything you need to know

A 'super El Nino' may be forming, raising concerns about record heat and shifting weather. Professor Kent Moore of UofT explains the risk and impacts on Canada.

After being subjected to almost a year and a half of La Niña weather, Canadians could end up facing the possibility of a completely different weather system – a “super” El Niño – according to climate scientists.

Kent Moore, professor of atmospheric physics at the University of Toronto, told CTV Your Morning on Tuesday that Canada could be looking at El Niño events later this year, in the summer and fall.

However, Moore noted that it is difficult to forecast weather events of that magnitude, and there is a 50 per cent chance of occurrence.

“As the weeks and months go by, (we’ll) get better guidance, and we’ll be more sure as to whether or not we’re going to get one of these super events,” Moore said.

What is a ‘super El Niño’?

David Phillips, climatologist from Environment and Climate Change Canada, told CTVNews.ca on Tuesday that a “super” El Niño is nothing but a “very strong El Niño,” which is a significant high-pressure area that brings heat.

“It doesn’t change the weather dramatically,” Phillips said, adding that it just increases the likelihood of certain weather events like droughts and storms.

In Canada, a strong El Niño would mean a lighter winter all around the country, he said.

“The water seems to warm up in the Pacific, and it creates the conditions that will produce a strong El Niño,” Phillips said, adding that this could lead to less ice in the Great Lakes next winter which could result in more lake-effect storms.

However, Phillips cautioned that forecasting weather is challenging because climate change is a significant factor.

The extreme weather system will affect Eastern Canada the most, Moore and Phillips added, saying that it’s usually more intense for areas that tend to have warmer winters.

“It’s a bit wetter on the West Coast as well,” Moore said. “The bigger effects are global, because the sea surface temperature in the Pacific is much warmer, the whole globe is warmer.”

Weather warnings

However, Canada is still battling the strong, icy grip of winter.

Provinces and territories are under multiple weather warnings ranging from winter storms to snow squalls.

Areas in Newfoundland are under an orange warning for a winter storm and a yellow warning for wind gusts, according to Environment Canada.

Residents in parts of northern Ontario are under a snow squall watch associated with “a sharp Arctic cold front,” where they could encounter brief periods of “very poor visibility” in heavy snow, Environment Canada said.

Parts of British Columbia are under a winter storm warning for blowing snow, strong, gusty northeasterly winds and 15 to 25 cm of snow with a wind chill of –25 to –30 starting Tuesday through Wednesday morning.

Certain areas in Alberta could see 15 to 25 cm of accumulated snowfall, developing Tuesday through Wednesday morning.

Residents in parts of Quebec are slated to see a “brief, intense snowfall” that could bring reduced visibility and deteriorating travel conditions, Environment Canada warned.

Some residents in western Manitoba could experience heavy snowfall on Wednesday, with 10 to 15 cm of snow accumulation, Environment Canada said.

Areas of Saskatchewan are under a special weather statement, with about 10 to 15 cm of snowfall expected from Tuesday night through Wednesday night, possibly extending into Thursday morning.

An area around Yellowknife in the Northwest Territories is under a cold warning with near –50 wind chills expected on Tuesday, while Clyde River in Nunavut is under a blizzard warning for poor visibility and blowing snow.

Record-breaking heat in U.S.

Meanwhile, our neighbours to the south are currently experiencing record-breaking heat in 14 states, with a “gigantic heat dome” trapping hot air over areas of the country. It may end up being one of the largest heat waves in American history, according to climatologists.

The area of the heat dome will likely overtake two other historic heat waves – one that occurred in 2012 in the Upper Midwest and northeast areas of the U.S., and another that occurred in 2021 in the Pacific Northwest – according to weather historian Chris Burt, author of the book “Extreme Weather.”

At least 479 weather stations in the U.S. reported record-breaking heat for the month of March last week, according to the National Center for Environmental Information.

With files from the Associated Press