‘This changes everything’: Here’s how Canada could be impacted by the U.S.’ abduction of Maduro

New images show massive amounts of destruction, with the number of civilian deaths still unknown. Kamil Karamali reports.

After the U.S. abducted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a military-raid, there was simultaneous celebration and global outcry.

While many Venezuelans praised the capture of a man widely considered to be an authoritarian ruler -- who is being investigated by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes against humanity -- protesters around the world also denounced the U.S.’s assault.

The United Nations and many other countries, including Brazil and Mexico, have claimed the operation as a blatant violation of international law and national sovereignty.

Here are three ways Canadians could be impacted by the U.S. strike on Venezuela:

Families reunited

The latest census has roughly thirty-thousand people of Venezuelan origin living in Canada -- with many sharing stories of the inability to visit home and their families under the current government -- who now say a new change in power may allow them to return to Venezuela.

Igor Marin, who lives in Oakville, Ont., and moved from Venezuela over a decade ago, says his brother was imprisoned by the Maduro government in 2018 and remains a “political prisoner.”

Igbert Marin Chaparro was arrested after he allegedly expressed concerns about corruption and deteriorating living conditions for soldiers. He was accused of treason and was imprisoned, with human rights organizations documenting alleged abuse, including solitary confinement and physical beatings.

But the political shift in the country may now allow the release of his brother.

“That’s my hope and the hope of multiple Venezuelans that are suffering through the problems of political prisoners. We want them back. The purpose is to get democracy back, to get human rights back,” said Marin.

“Keep the hopes high, it will happen” said Marin about his expectation that he will soon be reunited with his brother.

Earlier this year, Canada’s Minister of Foreign Affairs acknowledged they are aware of numerous cases of mistreatment, including those related to Igbert Marin Chaparro.

There are also less severe, but more common cases like Olaguer Chacon, a Venezuelan journalist who left his home country about 13 years ago, saying most of his family is still in Venezuela. He hasn’t been able to visit them in seven years, fearing persecution for being a journalist.

“Because I used to be a journalist and professor and that made me feel afraid, because most of the journalists and my former students have been prosecuted during the last ten years or so,” he said to CTV News in an interview Sunday. “Nothing is telling me that I am completely safe.”

He added that he learned his Venezuelan passport was deemed void recently without warning, also preventing him from returning home.

“We consider this [U.S.] attack a very painful situation but also a very hopeful one. It’s a measure we didn’t want to have but we consider it absolutely necessary,” Chacon said.

“This changes everything. With this attack, we’re expecting, finally, after so many years, to gather together at least on vacation and see each other,” he added.

Oil industry

Industry experts have warned that if the U.S. is to gain control of the world’s largest oil reserve in Venezuela, it will have a global ripple effect, including in Canada, but not for some time.

“There’s a lot of potential here in the future if Venezuela’ increases its oil output,” said Patrick de Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy.

“It will probably have a net negative impact, not only on Canada, but on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and United States. Because if you think about global oil demand at one hundred million barrels a day, OPEC had already been in the process of increasing oil production. Now, Venezuela starts to see resurgence in output. That could push oil prices even lower.

“It could mean a flood of new oil which could undermine prices and that certainly could undermine the output from these developing countries.”

U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that the U.S. will have control over Venezuela’s oil and its distribution, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to soften that stance, saying Sunday that the U.S. will instead implement an oil “quarantine,” which is a naval blockade targeting sanctioned oil tankers going in or out of Venezuela.

Experts have said the purpose would be to limit oil export from Venezuela, paralyzing its revenue stream and making the country dependent on the U.S. to help with oil trade.

According to de Haan, it will take a long time to see the impacts on oil prices in Canada because international companies will have to see a stable government in Venezuela before they have the confidence to invest billions of dollars to reshore the country’s oil infrastructure.

“That [Venezuelan] government has been very inefficient in how they extract the oil -- if the United States takes over the oil production directly, it will increase the flow of oil coming out of Venezuela and could depress prices in Canada -- and so it would increase competition for our oil and gas sector as well,” said Ben Rowswell, former Canadian Ambassador to Venezuela and consultant with Catalyst4.

Sovereignty

Rowswell also adds that the U.S. attack sends a clear message to other countries and their sovereignty, including Canada.

“Given that the United States has already indicated very little concern for Canada’s sovereignty, what they’re saying is individual Canadians are going to be less free if America gets it way,” added Rowswell.

“He’s talked about annexing Canada, Greenland, so many other things that it’s hard to recall them all,” said Mount Saint Vincent University political science professor Jeff MacLeod in an interview with CTV News’ Paul Hollingsworth. “So, when a president of the United States muses about taking unilateral action that could impact the sovereignty of any country, you have to take that seriously.”

The former federal foreign affairs minister Lloyd Axworthy believes Trump is sending a clear message with the attack on Venezuela.

“I think we’re witnessing an act of imperialism taking place in our hemisphere. This is not something that’s thousands of kilometres away. We live next door to Donald Trump who has basically made it very clear that he runs the hemisphere and he will do what he wants,” said Axworthy to CTV News on Sunday.

The United Nations’ Security Council is set to meet Monday to discuss a response over the U.S. strike, with U.N. Secretary Antonio Gutteres saying the actions sets “a dangerous precedent.”

Several other countries have issued formal statements of condemnation or strong rejection of U.S.’s attack, calling it a clear violation of international law and against Venezuela’s sovereignty.