Alberta’s oil sector growing despite global uncertainty: report

A new report by Deloitte says a planned pipeline expansion and expected increased production has put Alberta in a good spot to grow.

A new report says Alberta’s energy sector is still in a good position to grow, even though global oil markets remain unpredictable.

“We obviously saw elevated oil prices throughout much of this year with the Strait of Hormuz. Right now prices are a little bit lower,” said Deloitte energy partner, Andrew Botterill.

“Countries going to need to rebuild on their strategic reserves that they really decimated here in the last few months.”

Botterill points to an average WTI price for the remainder of the year around $80 U.S. a barrel.

The Deloitte report says global energy prices remained elevated through the second quarter of 2026 as markets continued to grapple with supply disruptions, shifting demand and geopolitical uncertainty.

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Despite those challenges, Canada and the United States both reached record crude oil export levels, with Alberta’s oil sands playing a major role in production growth.

The report notes that producers are choosing projects that cost less and can be developed more quickly, like conventional heavy oil drilling and in-situ operations. This helps companies stay profitable, even when prices drop.

Looking ahead, Deloitte forecasts continued production growth, supported by planned pipeline expansions and optimizations that could add about 800,000 barrels per day of export capacity by 2030.

“What we’re going to see is this renewed investment in recognition of what the global supply chain is going to kind of shift a little bit,” said Botterill. “Think we’re just going to see a little bit of a shift in the next five years of maybe not everything is going to come from the Middle East.”

He points to Asian and European market becoming more reliant on Canada energy.

The report says most oil sands development remains concentrated in the Athabasca region, while activity in the Cold Lake and Peace River regions has increasingly shifted toward conventional heavy oil production.

It predicts oil prices will fall over the next few years, with WTI crude settling in the $65-$75 U.S per barrel mark.

Richard Masson, former CEO of the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission calls that a middle of the road scenario.

“Very adequate to make a lot of free cash flow from their existing projects,” said Masson.

“From Alberta’s point of view, it doesn’t necessarily balance the budget, but it probably goes a long way.”

The report came after Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced separate pipeline proposals with Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford, arguing that additional energy infrastructure will be needed to support future production growth.

Masson says that forecast will also be able to support future projects

“Oil sands projects don’t need $100 to be successful,” he said.

“$65-75 the money would allow them to continue to grow, and fill up the Trans Mountain, Enbridge, South Bow and eventually the million barrels a day pipeline if these things can be brought in.”

LNG production

Robinson Energy, headquartered out of Calgary, was established in May 2022 and develops existing natural gas resources in Papua New Guina.

“What’s happening with the Iranian war is that the (disruption) to the Strait of Hormuz has really disrupted the supply of LNG into, the largest marketplace in the world,” said Robinson Energy’s CEO Cam Bailey.

Bailey points to a fifth of the world’s gas supply being held up in the Strait of Hormuz during the war.

Robinson Energy has accumulated 140 gas wells in Papua New Guinea and will look to capture part of the Asian market.

“Whoever captures that marketplace today, will have that secured for a long time coming,” said Bailey.

Bailey added the political issues to get gas to market in Canada “have been so difficult.”

“Papua New Guinea, those constraints don’t exist,” said Bailey. “That’s part of the reason why we’ve chosen to take Canadian technology and methodologies and apply to a jurisdiction where we’re not hamstrung with those problems.”

Botterill anticipates growing demand for LNG over the next five to 10 years.