Christopher Liew: What rising oil prices actually mean for your cost of living

Produce in a Levis, Que., market, Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jacques Boissinot

Christopher Liew is a CFP®, CFA Charter holder and former financial advisor. He writes personal finance tips for thousands of daily Canadian readers at Blueprint Financial.

Gas prices have crept back into headline territory, and not in a fun way. If you’ve filled up your tank in the last month, you already know. Those numbers on the pump are climbing fast, and they’re not stopping at the gas station. Higher oil prices have a way of seeping into almost everything: groceries, transit, deliveries, and even your next plane ticket.

Below, I’ll break down what’s actually happening with oil prices in 2026, why it matters for your wallet, and the practical moves you can make to absorb the squeeze.

The oil shock, in plain English

The Iran war and the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed global oil prices sharply higher since mid-March. According to Statistics Canada, gasoline prices jumped 21.2 per cent month-over-month in March, the largest monthly increase on record. That pushed Canada’s inflation rate up to 2.4 per cent, reversing months of slow disinflation.

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The federal government responded quickly. On April 20, Ottawa temporarily suspended the federal fuel excise tax on gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuels through September 7, shaving roughly 10 cents per litre off pump prices, according to the Spring Economic Update 2026.

But the relief is partial. CTV News reported that the average Canadian driver could end up paying about $1,600 more at the pump this year if elevated prices stick. And that’s just the direct cost. The bigger story is what comes next.

1. Expect the squeeze to spread beyond the pump

Oil isn’t just gasoline. It’s the input for diesel, jet fuel, fertilizer, plastics, and freight. Almost every product on a Canadian shelf gets there by truck, rail, or ship, and all of those run on fuel.

The Bank of Canada said as much at its April 29 rate decision, holding the policy rate at 2.25 per cent and warning it’s watching for the spillover into food and services. Energy shocks typically take two to three months to move through supply chains before they show up at the grocery store.

What that means for you: even if headlines start cooling, your grocery bill, restaurant tab, and transportation costs will likely keep drifting up through the summer. Plan your budget around that reality, not the hope that prices snap back next month.

2. Re-examine your transportation costs

The fastest place to find real dollars is the line item you can actually control. Driving is one of the few major expenses where small changes add up quickly.

Combine errands into one trip, carpool when it makes sense, and stick to the speed limit (fuel efficiency drops sharply above 100 km/h). If you have two vehicles, prioritize the more efficient one. If you’re a hybrid or EV driver, this is the moment the math really starts paying off.

For commuters, take a hard look at whether transit, cycling, or a compressed work-from-home schedule could replace one or two driving days a week. At current prices, skipping just one fill-up a month puts roughly $80 to $100 back in your pocket.

3. Protect your cash flow first, investments second

When essentials like fuel and food get more expensive, the temptation is to keep contributing the same amount to your RRSP or TFSA and quietly absorb the difference on your credit card. Don’t.

Canada’s household saving rate has dropped to 4.7 per cent in Q3 2025, according to Statistics Canada. I dug into this and other surprising household finance numbers in a recent Blueprint Financial video, and the bigger picture is sobering. Most Canadians have very little margin to absorb a shock like this.

In a high-cost environment, the priority order is: cover your essentials, keep three to six months of expenses in an emergency fund, pay down high-interest debt, and then contribute to long-term accounts. If something has to give for a few months, it’s better to pause a TFSA contribution than to rack up credit card debt at 20 per cent interest.

4. Get ahead of higher food costs

Food inflation was already running hot before the oil shock, with grocery prices up 4.4 per cent year-over-year in March. Fresh produce and anything trucked long distances will feel the biggest squeeze over the next few months.

A few things actually work. Build weekly meals around what’s on sale and in season. Buy proteins in bulk and freeze portions. Use loyalty programs deliberately. A loose grocery list at $250 a week easily becomes a tight one at $200 with a bit of planning.

5. Don’t make a big financial move on the worst possible day

This is the one I want to underline. When inflation hits headlines and pump prices peak, the worst thing you can do is panic-sell investments, lock into a long-term variable mortgage, or rip up your plan because the news cycle feels scary.

The Bank of Canada’s April projection is that oil prices will eventually decline and inflation will return to the 2 per cent target by early next year. That’s a baseline, not a guarantee, but it’s the central expectation of the people setting monetary policy. Most economists expect the policy rate to stay near current levels through the rest of 2026 unless the war drags on.

If you have a long-term plan that already accounts for short-term volatility, the right move is usually to stick with it. Reactive decisions made under stress almost always cost more than the problem they’re trying to solve.

Final thoughts

Rising oil prices are a real squeeze, and pretending otherwise isn’t useful. But this is a temporary shock, not a permanent shift in the cost of living. The households that get through it best are the ones who tighten up cash flow now, leave their long-term plan alone, and look for small wins on transportation, groceries, and discretionary spending. That’s how you ride out a shock instead of getting flattened by one.

Read more from Christopher Liew:

• Delayed retirement is on the rise. Here’s how to make the most of it
• How much should you have saved to retire at 60?
• How to prepare amid the mortgage renewal wave
• How to talk to your aging parents about money before it’s too late
• How Trump tariffs could affect Canadian stocks and investments