Gas prices fall on Middle East optimism but no one sure if relief will last

Cars line up for fuel at a gas station in Montreal on Thursday, April 2, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christinne Muschi

Experts say it’s anyone’s guess whether the relief Canadians have been feeling at the pumps over the past week will last into June.

Data from energy analytics website GasBuddy shows the cost of fuelling up has been dropping for the last 10 days to about $1.76 per litre.

Behrouz Bakhtiari, an assistant professor of operations management at McMaster University, says the decrease has largely been driven by optimism that Iran and the U.S. will soon reach a deal, quelling conflict in the Middle East.

Because no one can be certain a deal will be reached, he says it’s too hard to predict what will happen to gas prices in the near-term.

Even if the feud ends soon, En-Pro International chief petroleum analyst Roger McKnight says it could be four months until gas prices really decline because fuel inventories have been depleted during the conflict.

He says the supply of crude oil, gasoline, jet fuel and most refined products is running so low, suppliers won’t be able to dip into their inventory for much longer.

Gas prices have soared in recent months as war in the Middle East blocked a key fuel passageway along the cost of Iran, but some are hopeful the conflict will subside after U.S. Vice-President JD Vance teased a resolution is “very close.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 29, 2026.

Tara Deschamps, The Canadian Press