WASHINGTON — Republicans in Tuesday’s midterm races were hoping their candidates could hold onto the winning coalition that U.S. President Donald Trump assembled in the 2024 presidential election, but The AP Voter Poll suggests the GOP has lost ground with at least one key group. The poll, an expansive survey of about 80,000 voters in all 50 states, suggests young voters were less likely to back House Republicans this year than they were to support Trump in 2024. Young voters — those under 30 — were also more likely than older voters to say their vote for the U.S. House was cast to express opposition to Trump, and Hispanic voters were also less likely to support Republican candidates than Trump two years ago. Most voters say the economy or the state of democracy is the top issue facing the country, with the cost of living and government corruption weighing heavily on many Americans’ minds as they cast a ballot in Tuesday’s midterm elections. The poll also signals a strong desire for Congress to take a more forceful role in checking the presidency. But the survey also found that while Democrats have at least a slight advantage on several major issues, including the economy and government corruption, the Democratic Party is not much more popular among U.S. voters than the Republican Party. Young voters and Hispanic voters appear to shift away from Republicans After moving toward Trump in the 2024 election, young voters appear to have swung away from the Republican Party in this year’s midterms. The AP Voter Poll shows about 7 in 10 voters under 30 nationally say they supported the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race, while about 3 in 10 say they voted for the Republican. That’s a shift from 2024, when the youngest voters were roughly split between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Young voters make up a fairly small share of voters. Only about 1 in 10 voters in the 2026 midterms are under 30, which limits the impact of the shift. But their displeasure with the country and its leadership is clear: About half of young voters say they are “angry” about the way things were going in the country today, compared with about one-third of voters ages 65 and older. The survey also suggests Republicans may have lost the ground Trump gained with Hispanic voters in 2024, though to a lesser extent than with younger voters. Only about one-third of Hispanic voters say they backed the Republican in their local U.S. House race, while roughly 4 in 10 voted for Trump two years ago. About 6 in 10 Hispanic voters nationally say they voted for the Democratic candidate in their local House race. About 7 in 10 Hispanic voters say Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions in the U.S. Many voters were driven by opposition to Trump While Trump was not on the ballot, many voters had him on their minds. The AP Voter Poll finds about 4 in 10 voters report wanting “to express opposition” to Trump with their vote for Congress. Just under 2 in 10 voters wanted “to express support” for the president, and roughly 4 in 10 say Trump was not a factor in their decision. Most young voters — those under 30 — said their vote was cast to express opposition to Trump. Older voters, who tend to be more conservative in general, were less likely to say they were trying to signal their dissatisfaction with the president. The survey highlighted voters’ unhappiness with Trump’s leadership. About 6 in 10 disapprove of how he’s handling the presidency. Views of Trump’s priorities were also mostly negative. About 6 in 10 voters say Trump places a higher priority on his personal interests than the country’s interests. Voters think Congress isn’t doing enough to check an unpopular president Most voters nationally want to see Congress provide more checks and balances on the presidency, and they overwhelmingly disapprove of how Congress is handling its job. The survey suggests voters want to see Congress take on a stronger role as a co-equal branch of government. Roughly 7 in 10 voters say Congress is doing “not enough” to provide checks and balances on the presidency. Only about 2 in 10 say it’s doing “about the right amount,” and about 1 in 10 say Congress is doing “too much.” That dissatisfaction with Congress’s role wasn’t confined to Democrats, the poll found: The vast majority of independents and about 4 in 10 Republicans say Congress is not doing enough. The survey reflects deep unhappiness with the president and Congress. About 6 in 10 voters disapprove of how Trump is handling the presidency, while about three-quarters of voters disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job. Concerns about democracy and corruption rival the economy for voters The economy was a clear concern for voters, who expressed alarm over the high cost of gasoline and food. But the survey found many voters are also deeply worried about the state of democracy and government corruption. About 4 in 10 voters say the economy is the top issue facing the country, and roughly 3 in 10 say the state of democracy is the top issue. Only about 1 in 10 say the same about immigration or healthcare, and few named foreign policy or crime. Roughly half of U.S. voters said government corruption and the cost of living were “crucial” to their vote for Congress, higher than the share that said that about immigration enforcement policies, the war in Iran or AI data centers. Most voters who said government corruption was “crucial” for their vote for Congress supported the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House, while about 4 in 10 said they voted for the Republican. About 8 in 10 voters who said “the state of democracy” was the top issue facing the country supported the Democrat, while about 2 in 10 supported the Republican. Democrats have an an advantage on handling issues Democrats have at least a small advantage in their perceived handling of several major issues, although a significant share of voters say they don’t trust either party. Voters are slightly more likely to say Democrats would handle the economy and government corruption better than Republicans, two issues that emerged as highly important to voters in this election. Democrats also have a small edge on foreign policy and a wider advantage on their handling of transgender issues and healthcare. Voters split on which party would better handle artificial intelligence and taxes, while Republicans have a small advantage on immigration. Despite Democrats’ relative advantage on issues, though, the Democratic Party is not much more popular with voters than the Republicans. Just under half of voters have a “somewhat” or “strongly” favourable view of the Democratic Party, while about 4 in 10 view the GOP positively. ___ The AP Voter Poll is a survey of the American electorate conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, FOX News Media, NBC News and Versant. The survey blends probability-based and non probability-based interviews with registered voters in all 50 states conducted from Oct. 19 to Nov. 3 in Alaska and Oct. 22 to Nov. 3 in all other states. A detailed methodology statement is available here. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 0.6 percentage points for the full sample. Linley Sanders, Humera Lodhi and Hyojin Yoo, The Associated Press
