A razor thin margin in Ladysmith-Oceanside is putting one of Vancouver Island’s closest election races under the spotlight, with incumbent NDP candidate Stephanie Higginson holding a preliminary lead of just 13 votes over Conservative challenger Kris McNichol. The narrow gap comes as preliminary results point to a major political shift across the South Island, where the Conservatives have flipped three ridings previously held by the NDP. Dan Reeve, a political science professor at Camosun College, says the Ladysmith Oceanside result will require a recount under Elections BC rules when the margin between the top two candidates is 100 votes or fewer. “There’s a committee appointed by Elections B.C. They come in and they hand count every ballot,” Reeve said. For some voters, the prospect of such a close finish is surprising in a riding that has long been NDP territory. “If she didn’t make it, that would be quite a shock,” one voter said. Another voter was less concerned about the immediate result, saying the bigger question is what happens over the next four years. The Cowichan Valley race is also drawing attention, with Conservative candidate Bert Chen leading NDP incumbent Debra Toporowski by 150 votes in preliminary results. Reeve says a margin of that size is unlikely to change significantly during a recount. “When we’re talking about 150, it’s just highly unlikely that there are that many ballots that are going to flip one way or another,” he said. The Cowichan Valley is one of three Vancouver Island ridings to move from NDP to Conservative hands, alongside Juan de Fuca Malahat and Saanich South. The results mark a significant change for the South Island, which had been entirely represented by NDP MLAs before the election, with the exception of Saanich North and the Islands, held by the Greens. Green Party Leader Emily Lowan retained Saanich North and the Islands, describing the result as a starting point for her party. “This is just the beginning for the B.C. Greens,” Lowan said. The election also ends the NDP’s nine-year run in government. David Eby announced his resignation as party leader on Saturday night, accepting responsibility for the outcome and expressing disappointment over the defeat of fellow New Democrat MLAs. “Some of the hardest working MLAs I know for their communities were not elected tonight. It breaks my heart and I accept full responsibility for that outcome,” Eby said. What a Conservative government could mean for Vancouver Island Reeve says a Conservative government could bring opportunities for Vancouver Island’s forestry industry, but he also raised concerns about the potential impact on other sectors, particularly those connected to climate policy and public service. “Climate change, all that stuff is going to be thrown out the window,” Reeve said, adding that many public servants on the South Island could be concerned about what comes next. Premier-designate Lorne Doerksen says he is committed to representing people across the province, regardless of how they voted. “That commitment will show through in our governance when we approach that legislature,” Doerksen said. It remains unclear whether Doerksen will recall the legislature for a fall session. He says it is too early to make that decision. The final vote count is scheduled to conclude on Nov. 10, when the results of the closest races will become clearer. With files from Anna McMillan
