If the GTA population is up, why are public school numbers down?

An empty classroom is seen in this undated file photo. (Source: iStock, DONGSEON_KIM)

Many GTA school boards are reporting declining enrollment which has forced some of them to cut teaching and administrative positions and slash programming, even as the overall population in the region continues to rise.

In 2025, Statistics Canada reported that the population of Toronto and its surrounding areas had topped seven million, with nearly 300,000 people moving here within the previous year.

Yet, many school boards CTV New Toronto reached out to report a dip in student numbers over the last few years. In the few instances where there were reported increases, those spikes were modest.

School board officials point to a mix of reasons for the enrollment decline, from a drop in newcomers to migrations to other provinces. Meanwhile, education experts suggest that the proliferation of independent or alternative school schools that have cropped up since the pandemic, along with homeschooling, is playing a part in those declining numbers as well.

Enrolment numbers down in many GTA boards

CTV Toronto reached out to representatives at both Catholic and public-school districts in Toronto, Durham, Halton, Dufferin-Peel and York, for numbers on enrolment. Not all districts responded to requests for information.

In a statement, a spokesperson for the Toronto District School Board said its experienced a notable drop in enrolment for both elementary and secondary schools over the last few years. They point to several factors, including “declining birth rates and fewer pre-school aged children, continued reduction in federal immigration targets and fewer newcomers settling in Toronto compared to previous years” as well as housing affordability.

It had 3,000 fewer students for the 2025-2026 school year and anticipates 5,000 fewer students next year.

In response to its falling enrollment, the TDSB announced in May that it would be cutting 218 central staff positions, including eliminating 91 vacant positions.

The school board has also made several other cuts to programming, including an end to programming at several outdoor education centre and a “streamlining” of central library services.

Durham District School Board, meanwhile, said it was projecting a “relatively flat enrolment overall, with no system-level decrease and a moderate increase of several hundred students anticipated for next year.”

According to an education finance committee report on enrolment projection numbers for 2026-2027, there will be 261 additional students in the district.

“This reflects a stabilization of recent growth trends, following several years of significant enrolment growth connected to population growth across Durham Region,” they said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Durham Catholic District School Board also reported a modest increase in numbers over the last few years, which it credits to “continued residential development across Durham Region, along with recent government initiatives aimed at accelerating housing construction.”

For the 2023-2024 school year, 22,556 students were enrolled, while in 2024-2025, that number rose slightly to 22,816, For the 2025-2026 school year, it reached 23,678

Dufferin-Peel Catholic District School Board said enrolment has been declining for several years, particularly in the elementary cohort. However, secondary enrolment has been stable with some increases.

“Changing demographics coupled with the high cost of housing and living in the GTA -- Mississauga, Brampton, and Caledon in our case - have resulted in a migration of younger families to other parts of the province,” they said in a statement.

The Halton District School Board did not provide numbers but, in an emailed statement, said overall student enrolment is currently lower than in recent years, particularly at the secondary level.

“In Halton, this is largely due to aging neighbourhoods experiencing enrolment stabilization, along with slower growth in new development areas,” a spokesperson wrote in a statement. “We anticipate this will be a temporary transition period, with enrolment projected to increase in the next few years. “

How independent schools fit in

Joanna VanHof is program director for education at Cardus, a non-partisan, religion-based public policy think tank.

She said while there’s a multitude of factors resulting in declining enrolment in public schools, her research has shown there’s also been an increase in numbers of independent schools, which are managed independently from government systems.

Those include nature-based learning programs like Waldorf, pedagogical schools, like Montessori, First Nations schools, and religious-emphasis schools – aside from Catholic school, which in Ontario, receive provincial funding.

“There’s a sense that not all students’ needs are able to be met currently in the system – whether that’s because of special educations needs, behaviour or mental health challenges,” she said.

Adding to that is what VanHof calls a “shift in parents’ perspectives on what education can be,” which she suggested may be another factor playing into enrollment declines at some boards.

During the pandemic, when remote learning became mandatory across the province, VanHof said there were new types of schooling trends that emerged like homeschool pods, hybrid schools - where students attend an alternative school part time and public school the rest of the time - and micro-schools.

Between January 2022 and December 2025, 322 new independent schools have opened and stayed open in Ontario, the majority of which are small, she said.

Of the religious-emphasis schools, VanHof said a large number are Islamic, which reflects immigration patterns and the growth of the religion in Ontario.

She said that there’s also been a growth of independent Roman Catholic schools, which offer independent Catholic education that’s more intentional than mainstream Catholic education. In the last three years, 10 such schools have opened in Ontario.

“When we’re talking about educational pluralism, it’s about imagining what education can be,” she said. “Building more autonomy and choice for parents within public educations systems is a big part of pluralist systems across the world.”

Some families turning to homeschooling

Homeschooling, in which a child learns at home with a tutor or family member, has also been an option for many families in Ontario in recent years, though the Ministry of Education doesn’t have exact numbers available.

Peter Stock is the president of the Homeschool Legal Defence Association of Canada (HLDAC). He said since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, there’s been a doubling in numbers of homeschooled children, both in Ontario and Canada.

Stock said in nine of the 10 provinces, official numbers are collected as legal registration or notification requirements. However, that’s not the case in Ontario.

So, the HLDAC takes numbers from Statistics Canada of school-aged children in the province, subtracts the registered numbers of who are enrolled in public and private schools – numbers which are available – and then assumes the rest are homeschooled.

They also compare that number the numbers to those registered with the association, which turn out to be close, Stock said. In Ontario, it’s estimated that there are 90,000 to 110,000 homeschooled children.

That’s nearly doubled compared to two years ago, when the number was 50,000.

Stock points to a few factors for the jump.

“People are looking for educational alternatives because they feel that the public school system isn’t offering the same level of excellence in education that they would like for their children,” he said.

He also credits the pandemic for the boost in homeschooling, since many families were forced to try home education during lockdown measures.

“Some of them got used to it,” Stock said. “Some of them said, ‘Yeah, we enjoy this. We like this. This works for our family,’ so they stuck with it.”

However, he points to consistent growth in homeschooling numbers pre-COVID-19, of five per cent, year-over-year.

An education ‘renaissance’?

Stock doesn’t think a drop in public school enrolment is a bad thing since it gives families more choices in how they want to school their children. It also can signal to public schools that there are areas that can be improved upon, he said.

“The expression ‘a rising tide lifts up all boats’, maybe that applies here,” he said. “It may encourage a little more competition in the educational sector and therefore better educational outcomes for every child.”

VanHof agrees that the province isn’t seeing a decline in what we know as education, but rather a renaissance.

“A lot of the same questions and challenges that are facing public education, independent schools are trying to answer,” she said.