OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney has claimed his first electoral victory of tonight’s federal byelections, winning the Liberal stronghold of Beaches–East York, Ont. Results are still being tabulated in the two other ridings where federal byelections were held today: Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Que., and North Vancouver–Capilano, B.C. As of the time CTV News called the Ontario race, the Liberals were leading in both. These byelections are taking place amid an increasingly acrimonious trade war with the United States, and with MPs set to return to the House of Commons in three weeks for the fall sitting. As results started trickling in Monday evening, CTV News’ political panellists all emphasized how much the events of the last few weeks on the Canada-U.S. trade file — and specifically the actions and comments of U.S. President Donald Trump — are driving votes in all three races. “Trump is shaking the table, I think, in every part of this country, in politics from sea to sea, including Quebec,” said Kory Teneycke, a former director of communications for prime minister Stephen Harper. From the softwood lumber sector in British Columbia, to the agriculture and manufacturing sectors in Quebec, the effects of tariffs are being directly felt. The downtown Toronto riding, meanwhile, sits along Lake Ontario, which in the U.S. is now known as Lake America. “I think it’s a huge factor,” added Scott Reid, a former communications director to prime minister Paul Martin. Heading into Monday night, the governing Liberals held 170 seats, after a series of resignations in recent months. With this win they are now at 171. They need 172 seats to keep their majority government. With a majority government, the Liberals could hold onto power until 2029 and the end of the parliamentary session without the risk of being toppled by the opposition, because the numbers are on their side during votes of confidence in the House. Though, tonight’s results won’t be the last test for the parties, as the prime minister still has six other byelections to call in the coming months to fill current and upcoming vacancies. According to Elections Canada, about 39,500 people voted in advance polls across the three ridings. With election-day polls now closed in all three ridings, votes are still being tabulated and we’ll have rolling updates as the results are reported. Beaches–East York, Ont. In Beaches–East York, Ont., the Liberals have held onto a riding largely considered a stronghold for the party. At the time CTV News called the riding, Liberal Tanveer Shahnawaz was well ahead with about 55 per cent of the vote. Running against Shahnawaz were NDP Shannon Devine, a union and labour advocate, was sitting at around 26 per cent of the vote, and Conservative Jim Syrbos, a local coffee shop owner had 16 per cent of the vote. Shahnawaz previously served as the constituency office manager for now-former Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith, who held the seat from 2015, until he resigned early last month after a failed run at the Ontario Liberal leadership. Aside from the four-year period from 2011–2015 when it was held by the NDP, Liberals have represented the riding since 1997. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Que. The race in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Que., could see the seat flip from the Conservatives to either the Bloc Quebecois or the Liberals, and has been considered a riding to watch in these byelections because of the close margin of victory in last year’s general election. The vote is to replace the seat vacated by Conservative Richard Martel, who’s held it since a 2018 byelection, and was appointed by Carney to the Senate early last month. In 2025, Martel narrowly won the riding with 34.1 per cent of the vote. The Bloc and Liberals followed closely behind, each with 31 per cent of the vote, and only about 1,500 votes between them. In the running are Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault, a lawyer and professor; Liberal Daniel Gobeil, a local farmer and past chair of the Quebec Dairy Producers association, and Bloc candidate Caroline Dubé, who works for the regional county municipality. Also in the running are Raphaël Émond for the NDP and Nathe Perrone for the Greens. In an interview with CTV News last month, former Conservative cabinet minister James Moore said while the race is anyone’s game, it could be “enormously problematic” for the Conservatives if the seat flips to the Liberals. “If the Liberals leapfrog from third to first, and the Conservative slide from first to third, that’s going to be a real problem,” Moore said. “Certainly for (Conservative Leader) Pierre Poilievre, you have to explain.” North Vancouver–Capilano, B.C. The North Vancouver–Capilano, B.C., riding is another that has been held by the Liberals since 2015 and is widely expected to stay that way. Candidates are running to replace longtime Jonathan Wilkinson, who resigned after he was appointed ambassador to the European Union in the spring. In a letter posted online at the time, Wilkinson said the decision was “not easy” and that he is taking on the role to “serve Canada.” Wilkinson had been a Liberal MP since 2015 and held several cabinet positions under former prime minister Justin Trudeau, including minister of environment and climate change and minister of energy and natural resources, but was not named to Carney’s cabinet. Wilkinson won in last year’s general election with 59.8 per cent of the vote, compared to the Conservatives with 33.7 per cent and the NDP with 4.2 per cent. Running to replace Wilkinson are Liberal Braeden Caley, a former deputy chief of staff to Carney; Conservative Stephen Curran, a lawyer who also ran in the riding during last year’s general election; NDP Stephen Tweedale, a community activist and organizer, and Green Shelley Luce, an environmental scientist. The riding has largely voted with the government for decades, held by Conservatives when former prime minister Stephen Harper was in office, and flipping to the Liberals when Trudeau formed government.
