Which leader would Canadians prefer to negotiate with Donald Trump? Nanos poll results

CTV News' Jeremie Charron discusses the poll as all eyes turn to Liberal leadership candidate Mark Carney and whether it will translate in election polling.

Liberal leadership candidate Mark Carney would do the best job at negotiating with U.S. President Donald Trump, over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, and fellow leadership candidates Chrystia Freeland and Karina Gould, according to new polling from Nanos Research conducted for CTV News.

When asked “Which of the following politicians would do the best job at negotiating with U.S. president Donald Trump?”, two out of five, or 40 per cent of respondents, answered Mark Carney.

Poilievre received the second most support with 26 per cent of people surveyed saying he would do the best job.

Thirteen per cent of people answered Freeland, 1 per cent said Gould, while 12 per cent said they were unsure and nine per cent said it wouldn’t make a difference.

The leaders of other political parties were not listed as options in the survey, which looked to gauge where Canadians stand on various topics related to trade negotiations with the United State, as well as their stance on tariffs and Canada’s response.

Trump signed an executive order Saturday to impose across-the-board 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian imports with the only exception being Canadian energy, which faced a 10 per cent tariff.

Canada announced its retaliation plan Saturday night, an initial list of $30 billion worth of U.S. products that would be hit with retaliatory tariffs, and an additional $125 billion that would be targeted 21 days later – but a Monday phone call between Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau led to a deal that put a pause to it all for 30 days.

Canadians increasingly support immediate retaliation to U.S. tariffs

The new survey shows support for Canada’s immediate retaliation to tariffs has increased significantly since the end of 2024.

When given various options as to how Canada should respond to the U.S. imposing tariffs, Canadians have changed their stance, the polling shows.

Close to three in five Canadians, or 58 per cent, say if the U.S. raises tariffs on Canadian products, our country should immediately retaliate with new tariffs on U.S. goods.

When asked in December of 2024, only 29 per cent of Canadians said felt the same way.

Meanwhile, the amount of Canadians that believe Canada should be trying to negotiate a lifting of tariffs has decreased to 21 per cent versus 47 per cent in December, 2024.

Fourteen per cent of Canadians said we should do everything possible to avoid escalating the U.S. action into a trade war, while four per cent say Canada should escalate into a broader trade war with the U.S., and three per cent said they’re unsure how Canada should handle the situation.

Canadians widely support various retaliatory measure

When it comes to next steps, and specifically what Canada should do in retaliation to Trump’s tariffs, if they come, polling shows Canadians support a wide range of measures.

Most Canadians are on board with having provinces pull U.S. wine, beer, and liquor from stores across the country – 78 per cent say they support it, and 10 per cent somewhat support it.

Canadians feel similarly about responding by imposing dollar-for-dollar counter tariffs on U.S. goods entering Canada – 68 per cent say they support it, and 21 per cent somewhat support it.

When it comes to cutting off exports of oil, natural gas and electricity to the U.S., as a form of retaliation to Trumps tariffs, 51 per cent said they support it and another 25 per cent somewhat support the move.

Canadians would prefer to increase defence spending

Trump has repeatedly criticized Canada for not meeting the NATO defence spending target of two per cent of GDP, and has recently indicated he will call on NATO members to increase that target to five per cent of GDP.

According to NATO’s most recent figures, Canada was projected to spend 1.37 per cent of GDP on defence in 2024.

When asked whether they support increased defence spending, the majority of Canadians, 64% in the latest Nanos survey, support increasing defence spending to reach the current target of two per cent.

On top of that, 12 per cent support increasing it further to the potential new target of five per cent, while 14 per cent of Canadians would prefer the country maintain its current level of defence spending, and six per cent would rather see Canada spend less.

Methodology

Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,077 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between January 31st to February 3rd, 2025 as part of an omnibus survey.

The margin of error for this survey is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.