Here's what to expect with this weekend's snowstorm

Is it spring yet? No, no it’s not. It’s another round of winter this weekend with snow and cold.

Special weather statements blanket most of Vancouver Island as we prepare for another dump of snow Saturday. Like with any snow event on the island, the amount of snow will vary through many areas and with this particular system there’s a lot of variability due to those strong Arctic outflow winds.

We have ranges for snow totals, with inland and eastern Vancouver Island getting 10 to 20 centimetres and Greater Victoria along with the west coast in the five- to 15-centimetre range. High snowfall amounts are possible over upslope regions and higher terrain.

 

This system will move onto the island early Saturday morning, in the overnight period, starting in the north and west and spreading southeast through the day.

In the Greater Victoria area and possibly the southern Gulf Islands during the evening hours, some of that snow will change over into rain with a little pocket of warm air moving through the area.

From what I’m seeing, the hardest hit areas look to be some parts of the west coast, inland areas and east Vancouver Island, especially in the Comox Valley.

When we forecast these storms and systems, we use a variety of models and most times they are very close in agreement but with a dynamic system such as this one, even the models can’t agree with who is getting how much.

As you can see in the forecast pictures, there are different numbers in several areas.

The model on the top is the Global Forecast System model, which is run by the U.S. National Weather Service. This model is very accurate overall when it comes to forecasting on the island.

The other model is from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), an independent intergovernmental organization supported by many organizations.

Again, these are just predictions based on the data. During the system, things change and the environment can change fast, leading to more snow or less snow.

Either way it’s another winter storm to deal with before we get to spring, which will be here… eventually.