A new independent report suggests it would cost Alberta between $50 billion and $170 billion to separate from Canada. The report was released by the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy on Wednesday morning. It looked at two different separation scenarios: a “smooth” scenario, in which negotiations with Canada are “quick and favourable” to Alberta, and a “difficult” scenario in which negotiations are long and unfavourable to Alberta. It found the “short-term impacts of potential separation would result in significant economic disruption and costs for Albertans,” even if separation negotiations went well. “The cost of establishing a new country could range from $50 billion to $170 billion in the first five years following separation,” a media release on the report read. “These costs are in addition to impacts on economic growth and Alberta’s fiscal position.” The report considered the costs of providing programs currently under federal jurisdiction, as well as monetary policy, negotiations around Canadian debt and assets, labour mobility and international trade relationships. It found the “difficult” scenario would create “lasting economic and fiscal challenges for both Alberta and Canada.” “Even after 20 years, employment could be nearly five per cent lower and Alberta’s economy more than 16 per cent smaller than if the province remained in Canada. Despite higher taxes, the government could face an ongoing annual budget deficit of more than $30 billion,” the report found. The report found the “smooth” scenario could see Alberta maintain access to major trade markets, improve delivery of some government services, and expand resource development. “The report cautions, however, that any potential economic recovery could take many years following the disruption of separation and would depend on very specific conditions, including sustained high oil prices, that could not be guaranteed through negotiations,” it said. The Government of Alberta commissioned the report; it was assisted and reviewed by a panel of five experts, chaired by Jack Mintz, president’s fellow of the University of Calgary’s school of public policy. The panel agreed separation would involve “significant short-term costs” and “highly uncertain” long-term economic and fiscal effects. “However, we also stress that Canadians should be aware that Alberta’s separation will undoubtedly harm Canada as well,” Mintz said. Minister of Finance Jason Nixon responded to the report in a media release, encouraging Albertans to read the report ahead of the Oct. 19 referendum. “Both the scenarios outlined in the report highlight how costly it would be for Alberta to separate from Canada in the short term and also highlight the substantial amount of uncertainty Alberta would face in the long term,” Nixon said. “Alberta’s government has always been clear: we support a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada, and that is what we will continue fighting for each day.” The full report can be found on the Government of Alberta website.
