Calgary’s economic outlook includes growth despite labour mismatch, ongoing uncertainty

The economic outlook for 2026 looks bright, according to Calgary Economic Development, despite high unemployment and rapid population growth.

The forecast for 2026 is looking bright, according to Calgary Economic Development (CED), even with the challenge of high unemployment and rapid population growth the labour market can’t keep up with.

“If you look at last year, we are growing at a much higher pace, closer to four per cent growth,” said CED president and CEO Brad Parry.

“It’s levelling out, but it’s still one of the highest growth opportunities in the country.

“We are still going to be the (country’s) fastest-growing market.”

Calgary’s economy is projected to expand by 2.4 per cent next year, higher than the projected national rate of 1.3 per cent real GDP growth, according to CED.

While past forecasts have called for diversifying the economy, Parry says the energy industry needs support just as much.

“We’ve always been the energy capital of this country and always will be,” he said.

Population growth

ATB’s chief economist says Calgary’s outlook is also dependent on population growth, which is nearing two million.

However, Mark Parsons says the jobless rate demonstrates labour isn’t keeping pace.

Calgary’s unemployment is expected to remain near seven per cent.

“Alberta’s not in a recession. This is simply a matter of keeping up with the population,” said Parsons.

Parsons also says people from larger centres continue to move to Calgary looking for a better deal on housing, on lifestyle and for job opportunities.

“I’m in the tech sector. ... When I first came to Canada, I thought Toronto was better off, but Calgary seems better to us,” said Mohamed Afilal.

Afilal says he also encouraged several friends from Toronto to move to Calgary.

Calgary’s new mayor says city council is focused on supporting the growing workforce.

“Its going to require intentional, mindful investment around services and infrastructure to support that,” said Jeromy Farkas.

Farkas also says all this will be deliberated over the upcoming budget.