Alberta is primed for economic growth through next year, but the momentum could be slowed by referendum uncertainty, according to a new report from ATB Financial and Calgary Economic Development. The 2027 Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday in Calgary, projects the province’s real GDP growth to hit 2.3 per cent next year, while the national GDP growth rate is expected to hover around 1.5 per cent for 2027. The report is also expecting the province’s GDP growth to end at 2.6 per cent this year. “There is referendum uncertainty right now,” said Mark Parsons, ATB’s chief economist. “We think that’s weighing, but it’s being offset by other factors like higher oil prices. People keep moving to the province—20 consecutive quarters of interprovincial inflows.” The report points to expected gains in Alberta’s energy, technology, aerospace and manufacturing sectors. The province is also more sheltered from U.S. tariffs than other provinces, Parsons said. “Alberta continues to weather global turbulence better than most, supported by strong energy fundamentals, expanding market access and a lighter overall tariff burden than the national average,” he said. But the outlook also makes it clear that uncertainty caused by the upcoming referendum could rattle potential investors. “We know that capital is fluid, and it will look for places where they can find stability and certainty,” said Brad Parry, Calgary Economic Development’s president and CEO. “That’s why the debate around Alberta separatism is not an abstract political conversation. It carries real economic consequences.” Former premier Jason Kenney said the federal government is now “getting out of the way” in order to speed up projects and allow investment. “I want to send a message that we are open for business and we are a stable jurisdiction—that we are not going to launch ourselves into a woodchipper of uncertainty and economic pain,” Kenney told journalists about the upcoming Oct. 19 vote. Premier Danielle Smith also took the stage to again state her position that Alberta should remain in Canada. “Now is not the time to give up on our country—not when we have fought so long and come so far. I believe Canada can still work, and I believe it’s working better every day,” said Smith. “So, I’ll keep fighting for a stronger Alberta within a stronger Canada,” she added.
