It isn’t even summer yet, but it’s time to look towards fall and winter.
If La Nina develops the way it’s trending, Vancouver Island is in for a cooler than average winter with higher than average amounts of precipitation; rain or snow.
This won’t be an immediate and abrupt change in weather conditions. I’ll take some time to transition out of the warm, dry El Nino pattern we’re currently enjoying.
Scientists at the Climate Prediction Center and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society released their forecasts this morning. While we’re still currently in an El Nino pattern, sea surface temperatures are beginning to cool. As ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific return to normal in the next several weeks, El Nino will come to an end suggesting a transition to something called “ENSO-neutral”. That’s the period between El Nino and La Nina when atmospheric and oceanic conditions are “normal”.
ENSO Neutral isn’t expected to last long. By the end of Northern Hemisphere summer, climate models suggest seas surface temperatures will cool to levels considered below average, and La Nina will begin to develop. While there is still considerable uncertainty in the timing and intensity of La Nina, forecasters have issued a La Nina Watch as there’s a 75% chance of La Nina during the fall and winter of 2016-2017.
La Nina does different things to different parts of the world. Here on Vancouver Island it typically brings cooler temperatures and more precipitation. In past years, La Nina patterns developing in the winter time have translated to amazing snowfall in the mountains; great news for ski resorts! In contrast, La Nina tends to create conditions favourable for hurricane development in the Atlantic; bad news for the southern Gulf States.
Last fall, UVic researchers warned of the potential combined effects of El Nino and La Nina along the B.C. Coast, with the greatest concerns being coastal flooding and erosion.
Something to think about as we bask in the sunshine and brace for the upcoming storm season.
