There were long lines at gas pumps, turning each fill-up into an ordeal. Flights to vacation destinations were cancelled, delayed or rerouted. Online orders were disrupted as e-commerce hubs were set ablaze by buzzing drones. It’s been a difficult summer for Russians — a season of almost daily turmoil, frustration and anxiety. The war that President Vladimir Putin unleashed on Ukraine 4.5 years ago has come home and is harder to ignore. Nightly swarms of drones closed Russian airports, struck oil refineries or set ablaze the warehouses of retail giants Wildberries and Ozon. Over 43,300 Ukrainian drones were intercepted over Russia and illegally annexed Crimea in June, July and August, according to Defence Ministry data compiled by The Associated Press, although some clearly hit their targets. In the same period last summer, about 7,700 were intercepted, the ministry said. “We were living a normal life, and then suddenly it’s like this,” retiree Margarita Terekhova said about having to wait in line to fill up her car in Moscow, part of the nationwide fuel crisis from attacks on refineries that persisted into August. As the calendar turns toward autumn, increased awareness of the war and its consequences comes at a challenging time for the Kremlin. A parliamentary election takes place Sept. 18-20 — the first since the full-scale invasion. While there’s little doubt about the outcome of the tightly controlled balloting that features few opposition candidates for the State Duma, analysts say it still holds potential for political volatility. “Elections are a time when people should reflect on themselves, the country, where it’s going and what to do about it,” said Nikolay Petrov, senior research fellow at the NEST Centre, founded by exiled tycoon and opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Even in a strictly controlled environment, “things that are unexpected, inconvenient (and) painful for the authorities” can happen, Petrov said. Russia’s mood has shifted The summer’s first major attack came June 3, when an oil terminal outside St. Petersburg was struck just as Putin’s signature economic forum there got underway. Since then, Ukraine hit refineries, along with Wildberries and Ozon warehouses — from Moscow to Yekaterinburg in the Ural Mountains, to Omsk in Siberia. That intensified campaign — with its expanded geography and a growing number of drones — shocked Russians, says Denis Volkov, director of the country’s top independent pollster, the Levada Centere. Ukraine has not disclosed how many drones it launches, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has talked about expanding the strikes, which he calls “long-range sanctions.” Officials in Kyiv say they will continue trying to pressure Russia into ending the war, even as Moscow intensifies its bombardment of Ukraine. The attacks have remained the most noteworthy topic for two months this summer, Volkov told AP. Social media documented gas station queues or travellers stranded by cancelled flights. Tearful entrepreneurs told followers their inventory was destroyed at the stricken warehouses. Images of massive fires at oil refineries and warehouses showed up online despite restrictions on publication of content detailing the attacks. While the shock over this summer’s events has since eased, Volkov said, there is a longer-term downward trend that sociologists have tracked since last year: a worsening assessment of Russia’s economic situation and declining approvals of top politicians. Putin’s traditionally high approval rating has fallen somewhat this year. Data from the Levada Centre showed it at 76 per cent in August, down from 87 per cent in September 2025. Chris Weafer, CEO of the Macro-Advisory Ltd. consultancy that works in Moscow, said there’s more awareness of the war and less complacency about it. “People are grumbling more, they’re talking more,” he said, with a striking level of pessimism, especially in the business community, about the prospects for its end. Rumors of a possible mobilization There also appears to be nervousness fuelled by persistent rumors of an impending troop mobilization — like the widely unpopular one in September 2022 that drafted 300,000 men. Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials maintain Putin is planning another mobilization after the Duma election — claims the Kremlin calls “hoaxes.” That has prompted some Russians to leave the country. One 23-year-old Muscovite told AP she left last month with her husband, worried he might be drafted into the army. The young woman, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of concerns for her safety, also spoke of the fear she felt from Ukrainian attacks. She believes many feel exhaustion from the war, which can now affect “the life of any person in any corner of the country,” she said. Volkov said some anxiety over a new mobilization has long lurked in the background but flared up slightly last year after U.S.-led peace efforts stalled with no end to the war in sight. People “don’t want (the conflict) to expand and more people to be dragged into it against their will, and this breeds certain concern, anxiety,” he said. Authorities don’t want a war debate Volkov and Weafer said this increased awareness and the dampened mood aren’t translating into anti-war demonstrations, public unrest or even enough protest votes to affect the balloting. But things like turnout and “debate ahead of the election” still matter to authorities, Weafer said, even with an all-but-certain outcome. Petrov pointed to the Yabloko party, the longtime voice of the liberal opposition that campaigns for an end to the war. It initially was allowed onto the ballot, and its young supporters flooded social media with videos promoting the party. But on Aug. 10, the Supreme Court kicked Yabloko off the ballot, leaving it to compete only in single constituency races. Ten days later, the head of its Moscow office, Kirill Goncharov, told reporters the party, with about 4,000 members, received 8,000 new applications to join. “The context of the summer of 2026 is that there is a demand for peace,” Goncharov said. Yabloko’s slogans resonated with young voters, and that “upended the Kremlin’s calculation” of giving people a relatively safe outlet for their discontent, Petrov said. Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center said Yabloko’s removal showed that authorities did not want the election campaign to become a debate “for and against peace.” Petrov said the Kremlin needs elections “as a demonstration of its great legitimacy.” It doesn’t care so much about the results, since it largely controls all the parties anyway. “Elections, like in Soviet times, should demonstrate the complete loyalty of all citizens,” he said, adding that the vote should send a signal that Putin and the Kremlin have everything under control, and that people are ready to do “whatever authorities ask of them.” Ukraine says more turmoil is ahead for Russia Russians interviewed in Moscow this week about how they spent their summer recounted contented moments, but they also described living with the effects of daily drone attacks. Natalya Bazhenova from Chita in Siberia told AP she waited two full days in line for gasoline. Visiting the Voronezh region near the Ukrainian border, she got constant texts warning of drones but heard no explosions. Ksenia Smirnova said her family cancelled a flight to a Black Sea resort and is going by train instead to avoid problems. On Tuesday, Zelenskyy issued an ominous warning to airlines operating in Russia that the risks could continue. “Although the Russian authorities are not properly informing people about this, Russian airspace will effectively be closing — the war started by Russia is closing its skies,” he said. “For now, the skies over Russia are for drones — not for civilian aviation.” Dasha Litvinova, The Associated Press
