Expert warns U.S. oil push in Venezuela faces major risks, long timeline

Vehicles drive past the El Palito refinery in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)

A U.S. push to draw oil companies back into Venezuela is unlikely to deliver quick results and carries significant risks for investors, a petroleum analyst says, despite President Donald Trump’s efforts to open the country’s oil sector to American firms.

“At this particular point, will the crude oil companies say, ‘Yes, we really do want to get back into Venezuela and invest?,’” said Matt McClain, a petroleum analyst with GasBuddy, in an interview with CTV News Channel Saturday.

McClain said companies remain wary after previous investments were seized by the Venezuelan state, in some cases more than once.

“This is an area of concern, obviously, for crude oil companies,” he said. “Do they want to go and invest 10s of billions of U.S. dollars into the Venezuelan infrastructure when … they’re really not entirely sure that it’s very stable to do so.”

Trump on Friday called on oil executives to go back into Venezuela, describing it as an economic opportunity and a way to keep gasoline prices low in the United States.

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Oil executives, however, expressed caution.

Woods said Venezuela is currently “un-investable,” citing weak legal protections and an unstable commercial framework. ExxonMobil, whose assets were seized twice in the country, said it would first send assessment teams if it chose to proceed, but McClain said even evaluating the state of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure would take considerable time.

“It will take a lot of time just to simply do an assessment,” he said, noting the country’s vast size. “Nothing in 2026, possibly (it could happen) in the first half of 2027 but more than likely in the last half of 2027 at the very earliest. And that’s only if they start right now.”

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The debate follows a Jan. 3 U.S. military operation that led to the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Since then, the U.S. has seized tankers linked to Venezuelan oil and says it plans to oversee the global sale of tens of millions of barrels indefinitely.

Venezuela’s oil output, however, has fallen below one million barrels per day, and U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said it could take eight to 12 years for production to triple to three million barrels per day, even with sustained investment.

McClain said the administration appears focused less on who ultimately buys the oil than on routing sales through the United States.

“The key of the matter is the United States, according to the Trump administration, is open for business when it comes to Venezuela and selling its oil, no matter who it is,” he said.