As Canada builds fewer vehicles, Windsor-Essex sits at a crossroads in auto sector shift 

A report says Canadian production from the Big 3 automakers is down as Japanese makers rise. Sanjay Maru has the details.

New data showing a steep decline in Canadian vehicle production confirms a trend the auto industry has been warning about for years, according to a local automotive news editor.

A report from the Trillium Network for Advanced Manufacturing shows passenger vehicle and light-duty truck production in Canada fell from about 2.3 million vehicles in 2016 to roughly 1.2 million in 2025, marking one of the most significant structural shifts in the industry in decades.

The decline is largely tied to reduced output from U.S.-based automakers, while Japanese manufacturers have maintained comparatively stable production levels in Canada.

The five automakers that assemble vehicles in Canada — Ford, General Motors, Honda, Stellantis, and Toyota — are producing far fewer vehicles overall than they were a decade ago.

In 2016, four of those companies each regularly assembled more than 400,000 vehicles annually in Canada. By 2025, only Honda and Toyota were still producing at that scale.

According to the report, U.S.-based automakers accounted for 56 per cent of Canadian vehicle production in 2016, a figure that dropped to 23 per cent by 2025.

Over the same period, Honda and Toyota increased their share of Canadian production from 44 per cent to 77 per cent.

Greg Layson, digital editor for Automotive News Canada, said the report largely confirms what has been visible across Ontario’s manufacturing landscape for years.

“We’ve known for years that auto production has been sliding in Canada,” Layson said. “Manufacturing in Ontario has taken a step backwards, and we’ve lost some jobs to the United States.”

He noted that recent shutdowns, extended retooling projects, and paused production at several Ontario assembly plants have contributed to the recent slowdown, but said the decline predates those disruptions.

“It’s been falling prior to that because of the presence of Mexico being a cheaper jurisdiction to do business, a lack of demand for some of the things we make, and other structural issues,” he said.

“So I’m not particularly surprised by the numbers or what the report shows. I just think it proves what we already knew.”

Several major assembly plants have been affected in recent years.

Just this week, General Motors reduced cut a shift at its Oshawa assembly plant, putting about 700 people out of work.

This past October, GM announced it would end production of BrightDrop electric delivery vans at its CAMI EV plant in Ingersoll, Ont., effectively idling the plant and its 1,200 workers.

Meanwhile, Stellantis’ assembly plant in Brampton has been down since late 2023 for retooling work that was later paused, while Ford’s Oakville plant has been undergoing an extended retooling process.

The report also highlights labour productivity as a growing concern.

Productivity in Canadian passenger vehicle and light-duty truck assembly plants declined from $118 an hour in 2015 to $69 an hour in 2024, a drop the report links in part to idle and under-utilized facilities.

John D’Agnolo, chair of Unifor’s auto council, said the data reflects long-standing warnings from workers about the consequences of inconsistent production and investment.

“It’s a shame, to be quite frank with you,” D’Agnolo said. “We’ve got a long history with the Detroit Three, and to watch jobs leave this country is so disappointing.”

D’Agnolo said even plants that are currently operating at higher capacity remain vulnerable to sudden decisions made outside Canada.

“All it takes is one decision on the other side of the border and, the next thing you know, Windsor becomes the CAMI plant, Oshawa, or the Brampton assembly plant.” he said, “

While U.S.-based automakers have reduced production, the report points to Japanese manufacturers as an example of how sustained investment and strong product demand can support long-term assembly in Canada.

Honda builds the Civic in Ontario, while Toyota produces the RAV4 — vehicles that remain among the top sellers in both Canada and the United States.

Layson said that level of demand has allowed those companies to keep Canadian plants running at or near capacity.

“They’re churning them out seven days a week, 24 hours a day,” he said. “They remain popular vehicles, so of course they’ll be building them.”

Looking ahead, the Trillium Network argues Canada needs a more deliberate industrial strategy to stabilize production and improve competitiveness.

The report recommends leveraging Canada’s large vehicle market to secure manufacturing investment, rewarding companies that have consistently invested in Canadian facilities, and encouraging the use of advanced production technologies to improve productivity and job quality.

Meanwhile, federal Industry Minister Melanie Joly has said the Canadian government is putting together a strategy to support autoworkers amid job losses and punishing tariffs from the U.S.

D’Agnolo said workers are looking for action that reflects the scale of the challenge.

“We need a policy in place to protect the workers here in Ontario and in Canada,” he said. “That’s the bottom line.”

Stellantis has said more than 1,000 workers, including many from the aforementioned Brampton plant, have already been hired to fill an additional third shift at Windsor Assembly.

The third shift at Windsor Assembly, which is expected to grow to about 1,500 jobs, is scheduled to return in mid-Februrary.