Nanos seat projections show tightening race, potential for ‘volatility’ in next election campaign

The gloves are off with Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney hurling attack ads at each other, with the ballot question being who can stand up to Donald Trump.

With an election call just days away, the latest Nanos Research ballot tracking numbers show the race between the top two federal parties still deadlocked in a virtual tie. Meanwhile, the polling firm’s seat projections show Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals have picked up significant gains in several regions — including the Atlantic, Ontario and British Columbia — since Justin Trudeau’s resignation and U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Nanos’ latest weekly political tracking numbers show the Conservatives at 35 per cent and the Liberals at 34 per cent, with just one percentage point separating the two parties now for two weeks in a row. The New Democratic Party, meanwhile, has fallen to 16 per cent.

This would make the result “a coin toss” if an election were held today, said Nanos Research Chair and CTV News’ official pollster, Nik Nanos, on the latest episode of the Trend Line podcast.

However, “the election is not (being) held today,” added Nanos, “and the campaign is (about) to happen. And I think this campaign is going to see a lot more volatility than we’ve seen in the other campaigns.”

Changes in seat projections

Nanos’ latest monthly seat projections, which model out how many seats each party would win if an election were held today, show a “significant drop” in the number of declared seats for the Conservatives compared with previous Nanos projections.

Once in comfortable majority territory, the Conservatives are “basically in a fight for either a minority government or a weak majority government right now,” Nanos said. “So basically, the seat projections (are) tightening up, but there’s really some cool, interesting (things) that’s going on across the country right now.”

To illustrate his point, Nanos highlighted regional changes in his seat projections from Jan. 1 of this year (illustrated in the below maps on the left) to his recent projections as of Feb. 28 (illustrated in the below maps on the right).

Moving from east to west:

Atlantic

Atlantic Canada seat projections show a “significant swing back to the Liberals,” said Nanos, pointing out, for example, the New Brunswick riding of Beausejour, which belongs to current Trade and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc. It’s a riding that, in January, was too close to call (highlighted in black on the map on the left), but is now back in the red column.

And the province of P.E.I., which was projected to be Conservative dominant at the beginning of the year, has now swung Liberal in several ridings.

“On a polling front, what we see is basically the Liberals and Conservatives very, very competitive again,” said Nanos.

Quebec

In Quebec, the shift to red isn’t quite as “dramatic” as Atlantic Canada, but Nanos says the main takeaways are that the Conservatives aren’t doing as well as they were in the beginning of the year, and both the Bloc Quebecois and Liberals are gaining ground.

“We had (the Conservatives) in the ballot numbers in the mid-20s in the province of Quebec,” said Nanos, “and now what we … basically have (are) the Conservatives dropping about 10 percentage points to being in the low teens.”

Ontario

In Ontario, meanwhile, the Ottawa region has seen some significant movement. “Ottawa was looking pretty good for the Conservatives at the beginning of the year,” Nanos said, in ridings like Nepean, Ottawa South and Ottawa West—Nepean. “And now we have those three ridings basically too close to call. We can’t declare them for the Conservatives anymore.”

“So kind of like the other parts of the country — improvement for the Liberals, mostly at the expense of some of those Conservative gains that they were really poised to make at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025," said Nanos.

Meanwhile, the Liberals are doing better in the riding of Ottawa Centre, which was previously a toss-up between the Liberals and NDP.

Ottawa and battleground Toronto, in fact, are seeing vote splits favouring the Liberals over the New Democrats.

Nanos highlighted the previously Liberal stronghold riding of Toronto—St. Paul’s, where the Conservatives pulled off a win in the federal byelection in June 2024. “We have St. Paul’s sticking with the Conservatives (in the latest seat projections), but it’s a little lonely there. You can see that blue block right in the middle of the city of Toronto,” said Nanos.

Aside from that riding, what we see are the Liberals “regaining strength” in Toronto areas such as Scarborough, Etobicoke and Mississauga.

Western Canada

Not much has changed for the three main parties in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, which remain Conservative strongholds. While the Liberals are doing “a little better” in the provinces’ major cities, “a lot of the rural parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan are basically about the same in terms of holds for the Conservatives,” said Nanos.

But while Alberta largely remains “a lock” for the Conservatives, parts of Edmonton are now looking “exceptionally strong” for the Liberals, according to the latest Nanos tracking.

“Edmonton Centre, we think, is probably going to be — at least today — good for the Liberals, as is the riding of Edmonton Southeast,” said Nanos. “You can see the NDP still doing well in a couple ridings like Edmonton Strathcona and Edmonton Griesbach. … But we have to remember, (while) Edmonton is a battleground, in Alberta, writ large, the Conservatives are still exceptionally strong.”

British Columbia

On the West Coast, the Conservatives are still doing well in the Interior and the North. But it’s another story in Vancouver.

“The Conservatives were really poised to do exceptionally well in Vancouver, but now we see (in) Vancouver a significant battleground … for the Liberals, for the Conservatives, and I would also say for the NDP," said Nanos. “You can see all the grey and black ridings. Those ones are basically too close to call.”

At the end of 2024 and in the January modelling, there were only a few ridings that were too close to call, including Surrey—Newton, New Westminster—Burnaby and New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville. “But fast forward now and Vancouver is definitely in play,” said Nanos.

The Donald Trump factor

Influencing this shift in voter support, said Nanos, is U.S. President Donald Trump, who has become one of the key factors influencing how Canadians may vote in the upcoming election.

U.S. tariffs not only triggered a trade war, but also sweeping patriotism across the country. Trump’s suggestions of Canada becoming a 51st state have also strained relations between the two allies.

“He’s like the ghost haunting both the Liberals and the Conservatives,” Nanos said. “He’s like the uninvited guest for the Canadian election.”

Nanos said Trump has leapt to the top of national issues of concern for Canadians, with number two being jobs.

“So I see those two things as intertwined,” Nanos says. “It speaks to the fixation and focus that Canadians have on Donald Trump and what he’s saying about the binational relationship.”

Trudeau stepping down as prime minister, Trump attacking Canada, and the Liberals responding to Trump’s tariffs and threats of annexation were all factors that have benefited Liberal support, said Nanos.

“It’s put them back in the game. That said, things are very volatile. We should not think that just because things are trending positively for the Liberals right now, that that is going to continue, because the day the election is called, it will be a massive reset.”

Methodology

The Nanos ballot tracking was conducted using a random-digit-dial telephone survey of land and cell lines involving 1,074 Canadians aged 18 years and over, which ended on March 14. The data is based on a four-week rolling average where the oldest group of 250 interviews is replaced with a new group of 250 each week. The telephone survey is accurate three percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

For the complete podcast, watch the video at the top of this article, or listen in the player below.