What a Donald Trump presidency means for Canada

Sen. Marco Rubio, Sen. Ted Cruz, Eric Trump at RNC Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, and Eric Trump answer questions from CTV News' Vassy Kapelos at the Republican National Convention.

The most striking thing about walking the floor of the Republican National Convention (RNC) is seeing just how much this is Donald Trump’s party.

You can read about how that’s the case, you can listen to pundits say it — but to see it up close is something different. There is no ideology the 56,000 people here subscribe to, they don’t even describe themselves as conservatives.

They are "patriots," they tell me at length — and they are convinced Donald Trump is the sole politician who is willing to "fight" for them. That's the exact language they use over and over again when you ask why they’re at the RNC; why they support Trump — he is the guy who will "fight for us," is what they tell me over and over again.

So what does that mean for Canada?

It’s a question Canadian politicians and their delegates are consumed with, but there are few certain answers. Not only was Canada’s Ambassador to the United States Kirsten Hillman here for the duration of the convention, so too were Ontario’s representative to D.C., David Patterson, and Alberta’s point person in Washington, James Rajotte.

“They are venues where we have a large concentration of political elected officials, also their policy advisors and and their strategists,” Hillman told me on the first day of the convention about why she was here.

And there are dozens of meetings and sessions that she, Patterson and Rajotte took part in to plead Canada’s case, facing the prospect of a Trump win — which seems more likely now that it did even a month ago.

The focus for the Canadian delegation is the economy — that is by far and away the federal and provincial governments’ biggest concern given our dependency on U.S. markets as a destination for three-quarters of our exports. The memory of NAFTA 2.0 negotiations isn’t far from anyone’s minds and the worry about what is to come is punctuated by Trump’s promise to bring in a 10 per cent tariff on all imports.

Trump’s speech didn’t call out Canada by name, but he did mention NAFTA — slamming the original deal and praising the one that is now in place. He repeated lines he’s delivered many times over the last three years about targeting "so-called allies" who have "taken advantage of us for years.”

U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga of Michigan says he plans to make the case to Trump that the import tariffs shouldn’t be applied to Canada, but he admits there are no guarantees.

“I’m telling you there’s going to be a lot of us advocating for an evolved thinking of that, with some nuances,” Huizenga said in an interview with CTV News.

“We‘ll be an advocate, but…he’s serious about making sure that the U.S. isn’t getting taken advantage of by trading partners.”

Back in 2017, when Texas Sen. Ted Cruz hadn’t yet decided he was an always-Trumper, Cruz advocated for NAFTA to survive. I asked him if Canada would be exempted from any new tariffs — he too couldn’t offer a guarantee, but appeared well acquainted with our countries’ relationship.

“The U.S., Mexico, Canada trade agreement has proven incredibly successful for America, for Canada, for Mexico and it’s one of the great victories of the Trump administration,” Cruz said in an interview.

“I’ll think we continue to see ongoing cooperation and economic trade between our nations.”

His Senate colleague in the sunshine state, Marco Rubio, was less optimistic.

“Ultimately, the President is pretty clear on that,” he told CTV in an interview. “There needs to be a re-evaluation of trade policies to ensure that American industries are not eviscerated and that’s an even playing field.”

When I asked Rubio bluntly if that means Canada should be worried, he replied while we are a great ‘friend, neighbour and important ally,’ “it’s been no mystery that President Trump wants to revisit unfair trade.”

It may, however, be something else Trump wants to revisit that has a much bigger impact on Canada’s economy. In his speech, the former president blasted U.S. President Joe Biden’s inflation reduction act. The IRA is a multibillion-dollar incentive package for the development of green business and infrastructure.

Trump called it the ‘green new scam’ and promised to use any money not yet doled out on fixing roads and bridges, instead. He also promised to end the U.S.’ electric vehicle mandate on day one of his presidency, should he win in November.

The problem for Canada and this federal government is essentially that its industrial policy or plan for economic development is based on what the U.S. is doing right now. The IRA is why the feds and some provinces — mainly Ontario — have invested billions of taxpayer dollars in EV battery and supply chain plants. Our own EV mandates were set to roll out in conjunction with our neighbours south of the border.

If Trump ends all that, there is no question the impact on Canada will be direct.

A year ago, this was all just a bunch of what-ifs — nobody in an official capacity in the federal government thought Trump could win again. That thinking is over now.

The chance of a second Trump presidency — and rollercoaster for Canada — seems more and more likely. The people on the floor of the RNC are, to say the least, convinced of a November win, and with the Democrats in disarray - Canadians’ should be ready.