Eric Ham: Trump fell into the ‘escalation trap’—and Iran is dictating terms

Political analyst Eric Ham says the U.S. may ‘have no choice’ but to escalate with troops on the ground, despite pushback from Congress.

Eric Ham is based in Washington, D.C. and is a political analyst for CTV News. He’s a bestselling author and former congressional staffer in the U.S. Congress and writes for CTVNews.ca.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s unauthorized war in Iran has reached a crescendo. The commander-in-chief grossly miscalculated the reaches and depths of Tehran’s resolve and cunning. His decision to strike has had the unintended consequences of creating an oil hegemon so dominant and influential it is now dictating terms to other gulf nations. Its precision strikes and strategic bombing campaigns decide the rise and fall of oil prices globally.

The U.S. and Israel targeted key leaders arrogantly thinking their demise would cripple the nation; force its immediate surrender; and neutralize regional proxies. However, after one month of fighting it is the White House that is crying out for help. NATO has flatly rejected Washington’s pleas. The Quad is offering performative silence. Meanwhile, Beijing is relishing Washington’s rapid descent into another quixotic Middle East quagmire.

Professor Robert Pape, the founding director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats at the University of Chicago, says the U.S. has fallen into the “escalation trap,” reaping tactical success all the while suffering strategic failures.

Iran, whose finances and national economy were in tatters just a few weeks ago, now controls 20 per cent of the global oil flows. Pape said Tehran is expected to generate between US$55 billion and US $75 billion in revenue as a result of this war by year’s end. With an iron grip on a major commercial waterway, the regime’s newly replenished coffers have given them outsized leverage to attempt a forcible exit of American military power out of the region. Relentless and seismic strikes on GCC countries including Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia decimated the luxury tourism industry, wiping out five to seven per cent of GDP.

Tehran now stands alone in the region, unmatched in its might. Armed with invaluable intelligence on U.S. operations from the Kremlin and additional support from China, a “new mega-architectural alignment has been created; one that never could have existed without President Trump,” said Pape.

Stunningly, the White House’s imprudent decision to invade failed not just because it lacked discretion but because it has now created a more potent and virulent state actor. As a result of such a dangerous outcome, Pape says “Trump now wants Iran to give up power to bail him out.” Yet, with its newly acquired influence, wealth, and dominance in the region, the new supreme leader has continued to outright reject overtures from Washington. Now, the White House is falling deeper and deeper into the escalation trap and is now on a pathway to a ground war in Iran. A similar move attempted by the U.S. decades ago that failed in Libya and Serbia.

No lifeline, no rescue

Both nations are much smaller and equipped with far less military capability and infrastructure than Tehran currently wields. Undoubtedly an audacious move by a leader known for his temerarious and discinct decisions. Charging ahead into a war that will likely meet a very similar and catastrophic fate that befell the nation decades ago. As the oldest commander-in-chief in American history, Donald Trump has lived through a long and spectacular list of failures throughout his career. Bankruptcies; judgments; criminal convictions; and impeachments. Through it all, the only enduring lesson is accountability and consequences will fall on someone else’s shoulders.

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No doubt, this latest collapse could prove to be his most fatalistic yet. A Pandora’s box has been opened and now Iran and Russia have been made stronger; more resolute; and lethal. Keenly aware of his bungled decision, the president is desperately seeking an exit. No Mt. Rushmore choice is available and a ground war almost certainly destroys his presidency.

Alas, the line of fixers or conduits to step in no longer exist. Banks are no longer offering a lifeline; the family scion’s largesse cannot save him; and t

here is no cadre of experienced decorated public servants saving the petulant pol from himself.

Iran has become Trump’s Waterloo. Republican lawmakers are growing increasingly exasperated. Ardent supporter and MAGA loyalist, congresswoman Nancy Mace, a gubernatorial candidate in South Carolina, made clear U.S. troops on the ground in Iran is her red line. President Trump’s once ironclad base of support is fraying and dissolving. American global alliances, too, have abandoned the president.

Stinging tirades and fiery rebukes that once invoked fear and trembling are now ignored or dismissed. The imprimatur of might and strength pierced. In its place, desolation and despondency. No lifeline. No rescue. Just the end of the line. A full circle moment. A career and a life shaped and coloured by failure, now ending in much the same way.

More from Eric Ham:

• Trump needs a win, and Canada’s CUSMA deal could be his lifeline
• PM Mark Carney’s ‘middle power doctrine’ faces its first test
• The X-factor in CUSMA talks; a defiant Congress versus an enraged president