Carney announces byelections in these ridings

Political commentator Tom Mulcair discusses what to expect from the three byelections and how it could play out.

Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Sunday the date for three upcoming byelections.

Byelections are scheduled for April 13 in the following districts: Scarborough Southwest, Terrebonne and University—Rosedale.

Carney’s Liberals have a shot at securing a majority if they win all three races.

The Liberals presently hold 169 seats in the House, three seats shy of the 172 required for a majority government. The Conservatives have 141 seats, the Bloc Québécois has 22, the New Democrats have seven, and the Green Party has one.

The Toronto ridings University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest were vacated when two high profile MPs, Chrystia Freeland and Bill Blair, respectively, stepped down earlier this year.

Chrystia Freeland, the once-deputy prime minister who held the transport and internal trade file under Carney’s government, took on a voluntary advisory role with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. She had represented the University—Rosedale riding for more than a decade before her resignation took effect in January.

Bill Blair, a longtime MP and former cabinet minister, resigned his seat in early February to become Canada’s high commissioner to the United Kingdom. Until last May, Blair was Canada’s national defence minister, and previously held portfolios for emergency preparedness, border security, and organized crime reduction, a role that was later absorbed by other departments.

The voters in the Quebec riding of Terrebonne saw the result of their election overturned by the Supreme Court in February. The Liberal candidate, Tatiana Auguste, had won the riding by just one vote. Her opponent, Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné of the Bloc Québécois, demanded a byelection.

A Bloc Québécois supporter complained that she tried to vote by mail using a special ballot that was never counted. She said it was returned to her own mailbox due to an error on the postal code printed on a label supplied by Elections Canada.

Who’s running?

In the Toronto ridings, former Ontario NDP MPP Doly Begum will pursue a federal seat in Scarborough. She previously served as deputy leader of the Ontario opposition. Dr. Danielle Martin, a physician and former hospital executive, will run in University-Rosedale.

And in Terrebonne, Auguste will run for re-election.

The NDP have put up community advocate Fatima Shaban, who ran for the Scarborough riding in 2025 but lost to Blair. Kensington Market community organizer and health-care advocate Serena Purdy will run in University-Rosedale. She also led a bid last year and lost to Freeland.

Health and social services union advisor Maxime Deaudoin will run in Terrebonne for the NDP.

The Bloc, which only participates in Quebec ridings, will run Sinclair-Desgagné for a rematch against Auguste.

In a statement to CTV News, the Conservatives said they have a number of interested candidates in all three ridings and will make announcements early next week.

CTV Political Analyst Tom Mulcair, who led the federal NDP before Jagmeet Singh, predicted a “lock for the Liberals” in the two Toronto ridings. Quebec will be trickier, he said. Carney remains popular in Quebec, he said, but the overturned election in Terrebonne has left a bad taste in voters’ mouths.

“They should be able to take it but its going to be a terribly big fight for them.”

Regan Watts, a conservative political analyst who worked in previous federal governments’ foreign affairs, finance, transport and health departments, said the timing of the announcement reflects Carney’s confidence in a Liberal win.

“Governments typically only call byelections when they expect they can win them,” he said. “So, I have a sneaking suspicion the Liberals are feeling optimistic about their prospects in Terrebonne, as well as in the two Toronto area ridings.”

Referring to the Toronto races, which are regarded as Liberal strongholds, “The Toronto Maple Leafs, my beloved Leafs, are more likely to win a Stanley Cup than the Conservatives are to win either of those ridings,” he said. The Conservatives face an uphill battle in Terrebonne as well, he added.

With files from CTV’s Spencer van Dyk and The Canadian Press.