‘We could see shortages’: Experts warn of possible impacts tariffs have on health-care sector

The Canadian Health Coalition’s Steven Staples discusses how tariff-driven disruptions underscore vulnerabilities in Canada’s drug and medical supply chains.

As the United States continues to place tariffs on nations around the world, economists have focused on inflation, markets and trade balances. But researchers warn the fallout could also show up in doctors’ offices, grocery aisles and hospital budgets.

In a new analysis published by The British Medical Journal (BMJ), researchers Courtney McNamara of Newcastle University and Benjamin Hawkins of the University of Cambridge argue that trade policy is a powerful, and often overlooked, driver of public health, impacting access to medicines and food, as well as job security and the financial stability of health systems.

“We tend to hear a lot about economics, about markets, but actually trade shapes everyday lives,” McNamara, a co-author of the study, said in a video interview with CTVNews.ca. “It shapes the price and availability of food, the cost of medicines. It shapes how secure people feel in their jobs.”

Medicine access and rising costs

One of the most immediate concerns involves pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, the researchers say. Trade rules influence drug pricing and global supply chains, and even the threat of tariffs can inject uncertainty into systems that rely on predictability.

In Canada, advocates say tariff-driven disruptions underscore vulnerabilities in both drug and medical supply chains.

“We should all be able to supply our own health-care needs, such as medication (and) vaccines, right here in Canada,” said Steven Staples, national director of policy and advocacy with the Canadian Health Coalition, in a video interview with CTVNews.ca.

“It wasn’t too long ago during the (COVID-19) pandemic that what was happening in drug (manufacturing) far around the world was having an impact on Canadians.”

Staples said Ottawa should make plans for medical self-sufficiency, just like it does in other areas like the defence sector.

“Just like the prime minister is looking at national security and trying to build weaponry in Canada, we should all be able to supply our own health-care needs such as medication (and) vaccines … right here in Canada,” he said.

Justin Bates, CEO of the Ontario Pharmacists Association, said Canada’s deep economic integration with the U.S. makes the health sector particularly sensitive to trade shocks, even when drugs themselves are not directly targeted.

“Pharmaceuticals are not immune to those tariffs and economic pressures,” Bates said in a video interview with CTVNews.ca, noting that while most drugs in Canada are imported, rather than manufactured domestically, hospitals and pharmacies rely heavily on devices and equipment that are tied to cross-border supply chains.

“We could see shortages, we could see an increase in prices and things of that nature,” he said. “It does have a cascade impact across the system.”

As an example, he referred to the tariffs on materials such as steel and aluminum, saying they could cascade into higher prices and shortages for medical devices, including those used to manage chronic conditions like diabetes.

The BMJ analysis notes that brand-name drugs and medicines produced by smaller U.S. manufacturers may be especially vulnerable to price hikes, but similar pressures can spill across borders in highly integrated markets.

“Everybody’s feeling the impact of the tariffs or planning for the impact,” said Paul Sarnese, former president of the International Association for Healthcare Security and Safety, in a video interview with CTVNews.ca. “Pharmaceutical prices are going to increase and ultimately that’s going to get passed to the insurance providers and then ultimately to the patients.”

Sarnese said rising costs could prompt patients to postpone procedures or medications they can no longer afford, only to require more expensive care later.

Food prices and nutrition

Tariffs can also shape what people eat. The study notes that higher import duties on fresh produce can push grocery prices upward, while tariffs on metals used in food packaging may raise the cost of staples such as canned beans and soup.

“When we see prices increase on these sorts of goods, then families who are less able to absorb price shocks end up eating sometimes less healthy food,” McNamara said. “This can have domino impacts on people’s nutritional quality and intake.”

Lower-income households are particularly exposed, the researchers argue, because they spend a larger share of their income on food and are more likely to switch to cheaper, ultra-processed options when prices rise.

Jobs, economic stress and health systems

Study authors say employment is central to the political case for tariffs and a critical determinant of health.

“When people feel their job is under threat, (their) health suffers,” McNamara said.

Staples said trade-related layoffs can also have indirect effects on health-care access in Canada, particularly when people lose employer-based drug coverage, increasing pressure on public systems and household budgets.

He also warned against Ottawa’s public-sector job cuts, saying it will weaken health-care oversight.

“Many of those jobs are responsible for making sure that our drugs are safe, that our food is safe, that health care is being provided for in the provinces,” he said. “If we see those jobs cut, that is going to further create an insecurity for Canadians.”

At a broader level, the BMJ study argues that tariffs can fuel inflation and economic volatility, squeezing government revenues needed to fund health and social programs.

A call to bring health into trade debates

The authors say the global tariff war should be a wake-up call for the health community and governments to consider the importance of health impacts earlier, not as an afterthought.

“We shouldn’t just be thinking in terms of macroeconomic figures and stock markets and economic growth, but how these things are impacting people’s daily lives,” McNamara said, adding that health professionals should be part of the trade policy making process.

Staples said that emphasis is especially important in Canada.

“We really want to see the federal government paying much more attention to health care … because of the essential role that it provides for Canadians,” he said.

For Bates, the stakes are ultimately measured at the pharmacy counter.

“Where this really hits home is when people can’t access their medications, or they’re so expensive that continuity of care is impacted,” he said. “That’s when these trade decisions stop being abstract and become very real for Canadians.”