CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.
The federal Liberals’ advantage over the Conservatives has narrowed further and sits at four points on Day 18, the halfway point of the federal election campaign.
A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research ending April 8 has the Liberals at 43 per cent over the Conservatives who are now at 39 per cent nationally.
The New Democratic Party climbed a point but remains in single digits at 9 per cent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (six per cent), Green Party of Canada (two per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (one per cent).
“We are in a world where 39 per cent support for the Conservatives is not enough to win an election,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research and official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.
“This is a result of the increasing polarization centred around the two front running parties.”
Regional support
The Conservatives have seen gains this week in seat-rich Ontario, where they sit at 41 per cent versus the Liberals at 48 per cent.
The Liberals continue to lead in every region except the Prairies, where the Conservatives dominate with 55 per cent of those surveyed backing them -- versus 34 per cent for the Liberals.
The Liberals are leading in Quebec but are down another few points and are at 40 per cent, compared with the Conservatives who have gone up to 24 per cent. The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, are in second place at 27 per cent in the province.
For the NDP, British Columbia remains its best region where support for the party is at 16 per cent. Still, the Liberals are far ahead there at 41 per cent, with the Conservatives in second at 36 per cent.
Who is preferred prime minister?
When it comes to whom Canadians prefer as prime minister, Carney remains ahead but has lost a few points with 47 per cent choosing him over Poilievre, who has risen three points and now sits at 34 per cent.
While Carney retains “a comfortable lead on the preferred PM tracking,” said Nanos, “it is also diminishing.”
By gender
A gender breakdown of Nanos tracking shows women continue to be more likely to vote for the Liberals than men. Forty-eight per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals; compared with 31 per cent of women who’d vote Conservative.
Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is down a point to 38 per cent, compared with 47 per cent for the Conservatives (up a point).
Nanos said the race is tightening between the frontrunners among voters under the age of 55, while the Liberals have a nine-point lead over the Conservatives among voters over 55.
Methodology
CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 6 to 8, 2025, n=1,285, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
