What to expect for the start of summer, according to a senior climatologist

Senior Climatologist David Phillips urges people to remain safe during the upcoming heatwave in Ontario as many may not be climatized to the hot weather.

What should Canadians expect from the start of summer? On the first day of the season, a senior climatologist noted a contrasting forecast.

The next several days include intense heat or damp cold, depending on where Canadians are located, said David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada.

In an interview Friday, Phillips said of the eastern forecast: “A change of the season, and a change of the weather!”

• Nearly all of Canada will see a warmer than average summer, say forecasters

Parts of the country can expect temperatures in the 30s this weekend and early next week, including in Ottawa and Toronto, where the forecast high Monday is 35 C. Montreal is also expected to see temperatures in the early 30s next week, and the Halifax forecast shows highs in the upper 20s.

“Finally, summer looks like it’s going to arrive and not just in a teasing way. It’s going to be really intensely warm and a certain duration to it,” he said.

“It’s certainly going to feel like the dog days of summer, and that’s the first time that’s happened this year.”

While many will be pleased by the weather, he warned that there’s “a certain danger” to the heat because of the intensity.

“It’s the first heat wave of the year. That’s always the worst,” he said, pointing to an increase in emergency room visits every year because Canadians are not yet acclimatized.

‘Contrast across the country’

While Winnipeg is getting a taste of summer temperatures Friday, with a high of 28 C, Regina’s forecast is closer to seasonal norms, according to Environment Canada.

In Western Canada, the first weekend of summer is expected to be cool and damp, which Phillips called good news.

“That is the million-dollar rain that they’ve been hoping for to clear out the air, to make farmers happy, and to green up the grass,” he said.

“It’s really quite a contrast across the country right now, heading into this weekend, where summer is arriving in the east for the first time, and we’re seeing too much summer (in the west) – too hot, too dry, too smoky – and that’s going to change.”

Recent trends in summer weather

Asked whether there have been any trends to summers in recent years, Phillips said the last two years have been the warmest ever experienced, globally.

“In Canada, two years ago we had the warmest summer on record, and then last year was the fourth warmest, so we’ve really followed the global pattern with regards to summer heat.”

He said the last really cold summer in Canada was 33 years ago, and summers since the early 1990s have generally been warm.