Canadians lacking confidence in economic growth going into 2022: Nanos survey

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Canadians expecting a change in their personal finances are more likely to say theirs will get worse through 2022 rather than better, while most Canadians overall believe their finances will stay the same, according to a new survey from Nanos Research.

The poll, conducted by Nanos Research and sponsored by CTV News, found that the pandemic has once again become a top issue for Canadians, surpassing debt, jobs and climate change.

Nanos Research's Nik Nanos told CTV News Channel Saturday that concern over COVID-19 is leaving the majority of Canadians polled lacking confidence in the strength of the country's economy.

"With the rising concern about the Omicron variant, what we're seeing is [a] lack or erosion of confidence in where the economy is going," Nanos said.

"It looks like two steps forward, two steps back, in the weekly tracking when we ask Canadians whether they think that the economy will get stronger or weaker, whether there is no change in the next six months."

According to Nanos, 19 per cent of Canadians believe the economy will get strongerin the next six months, while 45 per cent of Canadians think it will get weaker and 28 per cent believe there will be no change.

When it comes to how that affects Canadians directly, the Nanos survey found that most Canadians said they believe their personal finances won’t change this year.

Canadians anticipating a change, however, remain split on the outcome, with 28 per cent believing their finances will be better and 25 per cent believing their finances will be worse by the end of 2022.

"Canadians were feeling much better about the economy in the fall," Nanos said, attributing the drop in confidence to the rise of the Omicron variant. "Now with the new variant kind of hitting the streets, so to speak, people are now worried and have a significantly higher level of anxiety about how the economy now will perform in the first half of 2022.”

Nanos told CTV News Channel that this lack of confidence in the economy and in personal finances is impacting certain sectors, such as real estate. Nanos said people think homes will go up in value, but that's a "double-edged sword."

It's good for homeowners and anyone looking to sell, he said, but it's not so good for anyone renting or looking to buy.

"This cuts both ways," Nanos said. "If you happen to be a homeowner you're looking at these numbers and thinking, 'My goodness, my home is still going up in value.'"

However, he said millennials, younger Canadians and renters are "probably worried” about the cost of rent and finances for potentially buying a home.

COST OF LIVING

If the cost of living increases in 2022, the Nanos survey found that half of those surveyed think Canadians will hold off buying a home. The survey reports three in five younger Canadians (those aged 18-34) believe this compared to about two in five older Canadians (aged 55 and older).

Canadians were also asked about family plans, and the survey found that most said they believe Canadians will continue to have children if the cost-of-living increases. However, it found 42 per cent of younger Canadians were more likely to say that people will opt not to have children compared to 23 per cent of Canadians aged 35-54, and 26 per cent of those 55 and older.

Meanwhile, older and younger Canadians were also divide on the idea of vacations amid a rise in the cost of living.

The Nanos survey found that 37 per cent of those aged 55 and older were more likely to say that Canadians will continue to take vacations, compared to 26 per cent of Canadians aged 18-34.

METHODOLOGY

Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,005 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between Dec. 22 and Dec. 23, as part of an omnibus survey.

Participants were randomly recruited by telephone using live agents and administered a survey online. The sample included both land- and cell-lines across Canada. The results were statistically checked and weighted by age and gender using the latest Census information and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada.

Individuals were randomly called using random digit dialling with a maximum of five call backs. The margin of error for this survey is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.