A new province-wide poll on separatist sentiment suggests a large majority of Albertans in every region of the province want to remain in Canada. Innovative Research Group says its survey — which was commissioned by third-party advertiser Vote to Stay — is tied for the largest publicly released poll on Alberta’s constitutional future. It looked at five areas in the province: Calgary, Edmonton, northern Alberta, southern Alberta and central Alberta. The poll found 78 per cent of respondents in Calgary and 80 per cent in Edmonton say they’ll “definitely” or “probably” vote to stay in Canada in October’s referendum. In both central and northern Alberta, the poll found 66 per cent of respondents said they’ll vote to remain. In southern Alberta, the poll found 72 per cent would vote to stay. “One of the really interesting things through the last several months has been how stable the polling numbers are around this question,” said University of Calgary political scientist Lisa Young. “We’ve got groups who are locked in their preferences and unlikely to be dislodged from their views by information or news outside their bubble.” However, Young says that doesn’t mean the autumn referendum is a “done deal.” “Everything is going to be about turnout when we get close to referendum day,” she said. “For separatists, obviously, this is the first chance to express their view at the ballot box. There’s been a lot of organization, and I think there’s a lot of hype around this, so we can expect turnout among those supporters to be quite high. “But when we’re looking at months of 75/25 polls, it’s really easy for people who support staying in Canada to sort of shrug this off, or to look at a long line at a polling station and just not show up.” The poll surveyed 2,000 eligible Alberta voters online between June 4 and 12. Results were weighted to reflect Alberta’s population by age, gender, education, race, region and past vote. As with all online panel surveys, a traditional margin of error did not apply. Vote to Stay — which includes former Alberta premier Jason Kenney and former health minister Tyler Shandro — has been extremely outspoken about the potential negative impact of separation. Kenney especially has stressed the economic damage would be devastating, with the group claiming an independent Alberta could face a $27.2-billion deficit in its first year alone.
