Alberta touted as economic haven amid national ‘uncertainty’

There is unusually high uncertainty within the Canadian economy right now. That's according to the Bank of Canada's governor, Tiff Macklem.

The Bank of Canada’s governor, Tiff Macklem, says the national economy is facing a period of “unusually high uncertainty,” but local stakeholders argue Alberta remains the premier destination for investment and job growth.

The central bank held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.25 per cent this week as it monitors global volatility.

“The range of possible outcomes is wider than usual,” Macklem said.

“U.S. trade policy remains unpredictable, and geopolitical risks are elevated.”

While Macklem does not predict a recession for 2026, he expects a significant slowdown.

Canada’s forecast GDP growth is projected to drop to 1.1 per cent this year, down from 1.7 per cent last year.

Inflation is expected to remain near the bank’s two per cent target.

A bet on Canada

Despite the cautious tone from the central bank, some private sector leaders are more bullish.

Speaking at a Calgary Chamber of Commerce event, National Bank president and CEO Laurent Ferreira said it is time to “bet on Canada.”

“After years of underinvestment, our government in Ottawa now has an economic agenda,” Ferreira said.

“We have an extraordinary opportunity to rebuild our economic sovereignty and become a relevant player.”

Investing in Alberta

Provincial officials are leaning into that optimism, positioning Alberta as a refuge from regulatory hurdles.

Service Alberta and Red Tape Reduction Minister Dale Nally noted the Canadian Federation of Independent Business recently gave the province the highest rating in the country for reducing bureaucratic obstacles.

“Our economy right now is absolutely doing so well,” Nally said.

“Last year, we created 25 per cent of the private sector jobs in this country, and we’re only 12 per cent of the population. I would say we’re punching above our weight class.”

Nally attributed the growth to the elimination of “regulatory burdens” that often stall projects in other jurisdictions.

Shifting perceptions

Calgary Economic Development (CED) is also working to bolster the city’s image abroad.

Recent survey data suggests the effort is working.

Calgary has emerged as the top destination for American talent looking to relocate.

The survey showed a 19 per cent year-over-year increase in Canadian and American respondents who said they would consider moving to the city.

“We’ve always been the energy capital of this country, always will be,” said Brad Parry, president and CEO of CED.

“But we’re seeing other sectors start to take hold now, and the rest of the world is starting to see that.”

The CED survey was conducted from Nov. 17 to 25 and included more than 1,000 respondents.

It has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.