Break even job growth rate differs between provinces: TD report

The Front Bench panel talks about the different factors pushing Canada's youth unemployment rate higher and what Ottawa can do to lower it.

TORONTO — The break even pace of overall job growth in Canada has fallen with the population and labour force growth, but a new report points out that there are sharp differences between the provinces.

The report by TD Economics says the total number of jobs in Canada can now be close to flat without pushing the unemployment rate higher.

However, it says that isn’t the case when you look at the data province by province.

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The report says with declining labour forces in Ontario, Quebec and B.C., those provinces could lose jobs without adding to unemployment.

But, it says, Alberta and parts of Atlantic Canada still need solid hiring as they are seeing growth.

The report says the provincial lens matters more as Canada’s economy moves through a soft patch and the labour market adjusts to stalling population growth.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 9, 2026.