What canola and pea farmers are hoping for when Carney goes to China

Ryan Scragg typically has sold 20 per cent of his crop by now. But due to tariffs and low market prices, he says his bins are still full.

As Prime Minister Mark Carney prepares to meet with China’s president next week, farmers in Saskatchewan are hopeful progress can be made toward removing the punishing tariffs placed on Canadian canola and peas.

Both crops make up about 70 per cent of what Ryan Scragg grows on his farm 30 minutes northeast of Prince Albert.

“It’s been a tough year market wise,” Scragg told CTV News.

In March, China imposed a 100 per cent tariff on canola oil, canola meal and peas. Canola seeds were hit with a 76 per cent tariff last August, widely seen as a response to Canada’s 100 per cent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles.

The tariffs effectively closed the Chinese market and pulverized crop prices to the point where canola and peas are no longer profitable for farmers looking to sell last year’s crops, Scragg said. “It’s really a frustrating thing,” he said.

“We grew a good crop. That should mean good profitability. Yet we’re struggling to even maintain any profitability. We’re basically breaking even.”

Scragg, who is the reeve of the Rural Municipality of Garden River, says he’s happy to see the federal government standing up for producers.

“I don’t see them inking a trade deal or something that immediately fixes it, but I think doing anything is better than doing nothing,” he said.

“The markets are totally out of our hands, so when the government recognizes that they need to step in and do something, I think that’s a positive thing.”

China is Canada’s second largest export market for canola products, valued at $5 billion in 2024, according to the Canola Council of Canada. The value is expected to drop “significantly below that” once final numbers are tallied for 2025.

“We’ve been very clear that our objective is to have the market reopened to a return to smoother, more predictable trade,” said Canola Council president and CEO Chris Davison.

Davison said the groundwork has been laid to recalibrate the trade relationship between Canada and China through conversations and trade missions over the last several months.

He’s now hoping that engagement translates into action during Carney’s trip.

The Prime Minister’s visit to China is scheduled from Jan. 13 to 17, when he will meet with the Chinese president to discuss trade, energy, agriculture, and international security.

“We are hopeful that the Prime Minister’s visit next week leads to a resolution that allows Canadian peas back into the Chinese market,” Pulse Canada’s president Greg Cherewyk told CTV News in a statement.

Peas have taken the biggest hit with markets dropping 35 to 40 per cent. Scragg’s holding off on selling any more of his crops as long as he can, hoping markets improve before he’s forced to sell.

“At some point, there’s just no more option of waiting. Cash flow demands and bills start to stack up and you just have to sell even it it’s at a loss just to cover your costs,” he said.

Scragg doesn’t typically like to adjust his crop rotation based on markets, but he plans to cut back on the amount of canola he seeds this spring and grow “next to nothing for peas.”

“Right now, it’s grow a little bit of everything and hope that something makes sense when it comes out of the ground,” he said.

“The problem right now is that nothing pencils out to a profit.”

Farmers are already halfway through the selling year for last year’s crop. Trade negotiations need to happen soon, Scragg said, for farmers to have hope heading into spring seeding.