‘We are headed very much to a catastrophic war,’ expert says on U.S.-Iran tensions

Middle East expert Nader Hashemi weighs in on the military forces deployed in the Persian Gulf.

U.S. President Donald Trump continues to threaten military action on Iran if an agreement cannot be made on Iran’s nuclear program.

• READ MORE: U.S. military prepared to strike Iran as early as this weekend, but Trump has yet to make a final call, sources say

Discussions between the U.S. and Iran are ongoing, with the latest talks occurring on Feb. 17.

Badr Albusaidi, Oman’s Foreign Minister confirmed on social media on Sunday that the next round of talks are set to be held in Geneva on Feb. 26.

• READ MORE: Next U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are Thursday in Geneva as Washington awaits proposed deal from Tehran

But one expert says the expanding U.S. military presence in the region could signal a possible war.

• READ MORE: U.S. increases military pressure on Iran ahead of high-stakes talks
• READ MORE: Here’s what military equipment the U.S. has positioned in the Middle East as Trump considers an Iran strike

“Given the military forces that have been deployed in the Persian Gulf, military analysts are saying that this looks like the lead up to the 2003 Iraq war,” Nader Hashemi, associate professor of Middle East and Islamic Politics at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. told CTV Your Morning on Friday.

“It seems like the U.S. is preparing for a major military attack on Iran, much larger and much bigger than what we saw last June.”

U.S. forces struck three Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 as part of an attempt to slow Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran retaliated with strikes on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, targeting U.S. forces, following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

Protests over the country’s political and economic situation began at the end of that year, prompting global protests, including across Canada.

• READ MORE: What to know about the protests now shaking Iran as tensions remain high over its nuclear program

But tensions between the two countries continue, as Trump stated at his inaugural Board of Peace meeting on Feb. 19 in Washington, D.C. that if a deal is not made between the two countries, “bad things will happen.”

Trump also said at the meeting that the world will find out in 10 days if a deal happens or whether the U.S military will take action.

Hashemi says the presence of the U.S. military in the region and Trump’s continued rhetoric are pressure tactics to ensure Iran agrees to U.S. demands.

“I don’t have a lot of optimism that these talks are going to produce a diplomatic breakthrough because they’ve been set up in such a way that Iran will have to reject the American demands because they are so comprehensive,” he said.

“I think (Trump) is just waiting until he has enough military assets in the region to strike Iran, hoping that is going to produce a big gain for him personally and advance U.S. interests in the region more broadly.”

Trump’s Board of Peace meeting also resulted in US$7 billion pledged towards rebuilding Gaza amidst the Israel-Hamas conflict from some attending members.

• READ MORE: Trump gets pledges for Gaza reconstruction and troop commitments at inaugural Board of Peace talks

But as talks continue between Iran and the U.S., Hashemi says the presence of the U.S. military in the region could potentially point to a war and not a resolution between the two countries.

“To deploy this amount of military hardware to aircraft carrier strike groups, it’s very expensive for the U.S. to do that and sustain that type of military presence for a long period of time if you’re not going to use it,” he said.

“I suspect this is all the lead up to a major war, but again, when it comes to Trump, what he’s known for is his unpredictability (...) he tends to sort of make big decisions based on the last conversation he’s had with someone in the room, so these things can change very quickly ...

My reading is that we are headed very much to a catastrophic war whose implications can’t be predicted at this moment.”