Prominent figures on the right leap to conspiracy theories about McConnell, Graham

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Prominent figures in the conservative and MAGA movements have led the charge in spreading baseless conspiracy theories about the absence of Sen. Mitch McConnell and now the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham.

It’s part of a pattern in which conspiracy theories about the deaths and ailments of prominent Republicans are increasingly coming from inside the party’s own house — with little in the way of efforts to combat it from GOP and MAGA leaders.

At Charlie Kirk’s memorial service last year, for example, Tucker Carlson seemed to play footsy with the burgeoning but baseless conspiracy theories that Israel was behind Kirk’s killing. He compared the conservative activist’s death to “guys sitting around eating hummus” in Jerusalem plotting to kill Jesus Christ.

But save for a few conservative critics, prominent Republicans largely ignored it.

And when Carlson was even more direct last month — saying Kirk “was most likely murdered for his evolving views on Israel,” a claim that remains unfounded — Republicans still largely ignored it, despite it coming from a conservative thought leader who is close to U.S. Vice-President JD Vance.

Republicans have similarly ignored the much more in-your-face campaign to promote this conspiracy theory from the highly popular podcaster Candace Owens.

And some key right-leaning figures have even suggested the assassination attempts against U.S. President Donald Trump might not be what they seem.

All of it suggests a GOP base that has become more conspiratorial in the Trump era is turning its theories inward.

The McConnell theories

The McConnell theories began with yet another close ally of the White House, far-right activist Laura Loomer. After the Kentucky Republican had been missing for three weeks with few details from his office, Loomer claimed a source had told her the senator was “brain dead” and “not coming back.”

Others in the MAGA movement picked up the ball and ran with it. After one of them alleged that other senators were “ALL in on it together,” GOP Sen. Mike Lee of Utah responded that they “know nothing about his condition.”

It got to the point where the cable network NewsNation even asked a House Republican whether McConnell was still alive. Indiana Rep. Marlin Stutzman’s response?

“I don’t know if he’s alive or has passed away.”

At least some of the blame for feeding these conspiracy theories surely lies with McConnell’s office, which resisted disclosing his condition. It ultimately said Sunday, after Graham’s death, that McConnell had fallen, had been briefly unconscious and then developed pneumonia. It also released a photo of McConnell in the hospital with his wife and a current newspaper.

Loomer responded by baselessly suggesting the photo had been manipulated.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune on Monday called the theories “crazy speculation online.” But he also suggested McConnell could help tamp them down.

“But you know, I think that anything he can do to just keep these, you know, crazy conspiracy theories off of the, off the grid, so to speak, I think would be helpful,” Thune added.

GOP Sen. John Cornyn of Texas later echoed calls for transparency, telling reporters, “I wish Sen. McConnell and his team had done that earlier. I think it would have resolved a lot of questions.”

A wide array of theories about Graham’s death

That was only an appetizer for what lay ahead. Graham’s death late Saturday night quickly spawned theories on the right that some nefarious foreign government was behind it.

Loomer cited how the South Carolina Republican had just been in Ukraine pushing for sanctions against Russia. Conservative commentator Marc Thiessen cited Russian President Vladimir Putin’s alleged assassinations of foes and said it was “not a conspiracy theory to suggest something else might be at play.”

Others like Kylie Jane Kremer, who organized rallies to try to help Trump overturn the 2020 election, questioned whether it was Iran, noting that regime has decried the hawkish Graham, too. (Kremer earlier this month accused Trump’s foes of manipulating the weather to make the celebration of America’s 250th anniversary unbearably hot.)

MAGA activist Matt Van Swol said Graham “dying out of the blue like this doesn’t make any sense at all.”

Still others pointed the finger, as is often the case, at Israel.

And FBI Director Kash Patel probably didn’t help matters by concluding his social media post about Graham’s death by saying, “The FBI is assisting local authorities and has made every necessary resource available.” Many wondered why the FBI would be needed if Graham died from natural causes. The preliminary cause of death from the medical examiner — an aortic dissection — was trending on the internet.

Cornyn stopped short of advocating the idea that Graham didn’t die of natural causes, but he called for the release of a toxicology report to “rule out any foul play.”

“Given where he was and the sorts of things he was advocating for, I think we just ought to resolve all those questions by seeing what the toxicology reports show,” he said Monday.

Also strikingly, one of those spreading baseless theories that something might not be as it appears was a leader of Kirk’s organization, Turning Point USA, which has been a rare force fighting the conspiracy theories about Kirk’s own death.

“I’m not sure how a guy goes from visiting a drone production facility in Ukraine to suddenly dying,” Turning Point COO Tyler Bowyer posted on X. “Seems like important context.”

The Trump and Kirk examples

The conspiracy theories on the right extend to the July 2024 assassination attempt against Trump. A number of figures who have broken with the president have increasingly suggested there was something suspicious about the attempt on his life in Butler, Pennsylvania. They include Carlson, former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, former Trump counterterrorism official Joe Kent and podcaster Tim Dillon.

The Justice Department and FBI have said the would-be assassin was Thomas Crooks, who left little in the way of a paper trail but appeared to be suffering from mental health problems.

And despite the fact that Kirk’s alleged assassin, Tyler Robinson, is now on trial and evidence is coming out, conspiracy theories about his death are proving remarkably resilient.

It remains unclear how much these theories have penetrated on the right and are actually believed. After a more recent assassination attempt against Trump — at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner this spring — a Fox News poll in May found just 11 per cent of his voters said it was at least “probably staged.”

But 30 per cent of registered voters overall said that. And having 1 in 10 people who voted for Trump believe such a thing is pretty stunning, in and of itself — especially given theories about that one weren’t as prevalent on the right.

There isn’t good public opinion data for the conspiracy theories about the deaths of prominent Republicans, McConnell’s absence or other assassination attempts against Trump.

Another complicating factor is that it may be politically challenging for some Republicans to go after these theories too strongly. That’s because some of them are being promoted by people with real influence and ties to Trump. Loomer has proven a weirdly influential figure with Trump over the years, and Carlson — the former highest-rated host on Fox News — was reported to be instrumental in getting Vance installed as vice-president. Also, plenty on the right like Megyn Kelly have appeared reluctant to tangle with Owens.

But the Kirk conspiracy theories were a great example of how this can go wrong for the party. Trump really wanted to use Kirk’s assassination as the basis to go after left-leaning groups he claimed (without evidence) were responsible for such violence. Yet prominent MAGA figures were undermining that political strategy by suggesting it wasn’t the left but instead their chosen villain that was responsible.

To the extent deaths like these are going to be instantly greeted with conspiracy theories, that creates a real collective-action problem for Republicans.

But thanks to the GOP’s many years of humouring Trump’s own amplification of conspiracy theories, it’s a problem long in the making.