Liberal mayor and conservative historian headed to presidential runoff in Poland, exit poll suggests

Voter cast their ballots polling stations opened in the first round of Poland's presidential elections in Warsaw, on Sunday, May 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

WARSAW, Poland — Liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski and a conservative historian, Karol Nawrocki, emerged as the front-runners in Poland’s presidential election Sunday, according to an exit poll, putting them on track to face off in a second round in two weeks.

A late exit poll by the Ipsos institute released three hours after polls closed showed Trzaskowski with an estimated 31.1% of the votes and Nawrocki with 29.1%. That suggested that the runoff on June 1 could be very tight. Official results are expected on Monday or Tuesday.

Trzaskowski is a liberal allied with Prime Minister Donald Tusk who speaks foreign languages and holds pro-European Union views. His support is strongest in cities, where many like his secular views and support for LGBTQ+ rights.

Nawrocki is a conservative historian with no prior political experience who was backed by the national conservative Law and Justice party. The head of a state historical institute, Nawrocki has positioned himself as a defender of conservative values and national sovereignty. He was welcomed by President Donald Trump at the White House earlier this month in what was viewed as an endorsement and has embraced anti-Ukrainian rhetoric during the campaign.

It was a worse showing for Trzaskowski than expected, and it appeared overall to be a good showing for the candidates on the right in a large field of 13 candidates.

Nawrocki did better than expected despite recent allegations of him obtaining an apartment from an elderly man in a dishonest manner -- something he denies. After the scandal erupted, he donated the apartment to charity.

Addressing his supporters, Nawrocki hailed his result, noting that there was just a “cosmetic difference” between himself, a political newcomer, and Trzaskowski, long viewed as the frontrunner.

“I would like to thank the millions of Poles who voted for me,” he said during an election night event in Gdansk. “The millions of Poles who did not succumb to the pressure of propaganda, falsehood, lies.”

A far-right candidate, Slawomir Mentzen was projected to garner 14.8%, a strong result his Confederation party celebrated, while an extreme right-wing candidate, Grzegorz Braun, was predicted to win 6.3%, according to the exit poll.

Exit polls have a small margin of error and the official vote count could differ somewhat, but they show the terrain ahead being challenging for Trzaskowski.

Although Poland’s prime minister and parliament hold primary authority over domestic policy, the presidency carries substantial power, with a strong role in foreign and security policy and veto power over laws.

The conservative outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, has repeatedly used that power over more than the past year to hamper Tusk’s agenda.

A Trzaskowski victory could be expected to end such a standoff.

“The game for everything is just beginning,” Tusk tweeted Sunday evening. “A tough fight for every vote. These two weeks will decide the future of our homeland. Therefore, not a step back.”

Trzaskowski has pledged to support reforms to the courts and public media, both of which critics say were politicized under Law and Justice. Tusk’s opponents accuse him of also politicizing public media.

Trzaskowski, who ran for the presidency in 2020 and narrowly lost to Duda, had been polling higher earlier in the campaign but had mishaps including disappointing debate performances, with behavior described by political commentators as overconfident or even arrogant.

In a speech to his supporters in Sandomierz, Trzaskowski said he knew the race would be hard and acknowledged that there is a lot of work ahead. He reached out to the voters of other candidates, appealing for their votes in the second round.

He described Nawrocki as someone who is “radical and seeks conflict” and promised to be a constructive president who would reduce tensions in the deeply divided nation.

The election comes at a time of heightened security concerns stemming from the war in neighboring Ukraine and growing worry that the U.S. commitment to Europe’s security could be weakening under Trump.

Polish authorities have reported foreign attempts at interference during the campaign, including denial-of-service attacks targeting parties in Tusk’s coalition and allegations by a state research institute that political ads on Facebook were funded from abroad.

Monika Laskowska-Dzierbicka, a 36-year-old clinical psychology student, voted in Warsaw for Trzaskowski, explaining that she feels “he would be able to resolve disputes, that he would not divide Poles.”

At the same Warsaw polling station, a Nawrocki supporter, Irena Kuczyńska, 79, said she viewed Nawrocki as someone who embodies traditional Polish values. “From the old days of my family, God, Honor and Fatherland are the most important. And that’s why I’m with Mr. Nawrocki.”