CIA believes COVID-19 likely originated from a lab, but agency has low confidence in its own finding

A view of the P4 lab inside the Wuhan Institute of Virology is seen after a visit by the World Health Organization team in Wuhan in China's Hubei province, Feb. 3, 2021. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — The CIA now believes the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic likely originated from a laboratory, according to an assessment released Saturday that points the finger at China even while acknowledging that the spy agency has “low confidence” in its own conclusion.

The finding is not the result of any new intelligence, and the report was completed at the behest of the Biden administration and former CIA Director William Burns. It was declassified and released Saturday on the orders of President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the agency, John Ratcliffe, who was sworn in Thursday as director.

The nuanced finding suggests the agency believes the totality of evidence makes a lab origin more likely than a natural origin. But the agency’s assessment assigns a low degree of confidence to this conclusion, suggesting the evidence is deficient, inconclusive or contradictory.

Earlier reports on the origins of COVID-19 have split over whether the coronavirus emerged from a Chinese lab, potentially by mistake, or whether it arose naturally. The new assessment is not likely to settle the debate. In fact, intelligence officials say it may never be resolved, due to a lack of cooperation from Chinese authorities.

“CIA continues to assess that both research-related and natural origin scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic remain plausible,” a spokesperson for the agency wrote in a statement about the agency’s assessment.

Instead of new evidence, the conclusion was based on fresh analyses of intelligence about the spread of the virus, its scientific properties and the work and conditions of China’s virology labs.

Lawmakers have pressured America’s spy agencies for more information about the origins of the virus, which led to lockdowns, economic upheaval and millions of deaths.

While the origin of the virus remains unknown, scientists think the most likely hypothesis is that it circulated in bats, like many coronaviruses, before infecting another species, probably racoon dogs, civet cats or bamboo rats. In turn, the infection spread to humans handling or butchering those animals at a market in Wuhan, where the first human cases appeared in late November 2019.

Some official investigations, however, have raised the the question of whether the virus escaped from a lab in Wuhan. Two years ago a report by the Department of Energy concluded a lab leak was the most likely origin, though that report also expressed low confidence in the finding.

Ratcliffe, who served as director of national intelligence during Trump’s first term, has said he favors the lab leak scenario.

“The lab leak is the only theory supported by science, intelligence, and common sense,” Ratcliffe said in 2023.

The CIA “will continue to evaluate any available credible new intelligence reporting or open-source information that could change CIA’s assessment,” the agency spokesperson said.

David Klepper, The Associated Press