Winnipeg riding with rural flavour is typically blue, but has seen red

CTV’s Jeff Keele examines the Manitoba riding of Kildonan-St. Paul, which has a mixture of urban and rural voters.

The Kildonan-St. Paul riding usually goes Conservative on election night, and the incumbent is hoping it stays that way.

The seat is in the northeast corner of Winnipeg and stretches into the city’s bedroom communities.

Raquel Dancho is the Conservative candidate; she’s been elected twice.

“Certainly I think my hard work over the last five and a half years of representing this community with dignity, compassion, and respect, and my hard work ethic has had a real impact on the community; I hear great feedback.” Said Dancho

In 2021, Dancho won by more than 5,400 votes over the second-place Liberal candidate. She says voters in Kildonan-St. Paul are telling her they’re hoping for a conservative government.

“That hope has been very clear on the doors,” said Dancho. “It’s been so wonderful to see the support we’ve received from young families, from seniors. People want change and we’re ready to deliver that.”

The liberal candidate is Thomas Naaykens, an armoured officer in the Canadian Armed Forces.

He believes the race is close.

“She is the incumbent, but I won’t say I’m the underdog. I’d say we’re really neck and neck right now, and it could go either way, but we do feel very confident that we are going to win this riding.” Said Naaykens

Naaykens feels his party’s new leader gives him a boost over Dancho.

“We’re getting a lot of support at the doors,” said Naaykens “A lot of people who are telling us that they are lifelong Conservatives are going to vote Liberal this time, because they’re asking for that stability, which someone like Mark Carney offers.”

The seat did go red in 2015 when Justin Trudeau won a majority government. Adjunct professor of political studies Chris Adams says the seat could go liberal, but the demographics could favour the conservatives.

“You know a lot of that riding is suburban, and so the suburbs fit more closely with the Conservative Party profile,” said Adams.

The NDP candidate here is Emily Clark, who works for a medical education firm. Clark also ran here last time and finished in a respectable third place with more than 10,000 votes.

“By showing up and by being available, returning every email I receive personally, returning all my phone calls, and committing to that, that’s how we beat an incumbent like Raquel.” Said Clark

There is one more candidate on the ballot; Erik Holmes is running for the People’s Party of Canada.