NDP drop in polls could trigger changes in Manitoba seat holdings, analyst says

CTV's Ainsley McPhail learns what pollsters are saying on election day

WINNIPEG — The Liberals were on track to add to their seat count in Manitoba while the NDP were nearly shut out as results for the federal election continued coming in late Monday.

Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals were projected to win a fourth mandate, though it was not yet known whether they would lead a minority or majority government.

Much of the Liberals' support in Manitoba was concentrated in Winnipeg, where they were projected to win five of eight ridings. They held four of the province's 14 seats prior to the election and were on track to keep those four.

Liberal Ginette Lavack, who held leadership roles at organizations including the Franco-Manitoban Cultural Centre and Festival du Voyageur, won in St. Boniface-St. Vital. The seat was previously held by former cabinet minister Dan Vandal, who did not seek re-election.

The Liberals also appeared set to win the northern riding of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, with Rebecca Chartrand unseating New Democrat Niki Ashton, who had held the riding since 2008.

A pair of Winnipeg seats switched hands.

Conservative Colin Reynolds defeated incumbent Leila Dance of the NDP in Elmwood-Transcona, which Dance won in a September 2024 byelection after fellow New Democrat Daniel Blaikie resigned to work for Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew.

In the riding of Winnipeg West, Liberal Doug Eyolfson beat incumbent Marty Morantz of the Conservatives after losing to him in the two previous federal elections, including by fewer than 500 votes in 2021.

Liberal cabinet minister Terry Duguid held onto his seat in Winnipeg South, a riding long considered a bellwether seat. It has elected a member of the governing party in every election since 1988.

Duguid was greeted by cheers, hugs and singer-songwriter Neil Young’s “Rockin’ in the Free World” shortly after it was determined he would win.

Duguid, who was first elected in 2015, defeated Conservative candidate Janice Morley-Lecomte, a former provincial cabinet minister, who placed second in the polls.

He took to a podium at Italian eatery Nicolino’s to address dozens of supporters who filled a portion of the restaurant late Monday evening.

“It’s truly been an honour to represent this amazing riding," Duguid told the crowd.

"I call it a little piece of Canada, a microcosm of Canada … we live together in harmony. We thrive. We really are a model on how people can live and thrive together in the world."

He said that over the past five weeks, his team ran an energetic, positive and fun campaign, and credited the work his constituency team has done over the past decade for helping him secure another win.

Duguid thanked former prime minister Justin Trudeau for the work he did.

“I wouldn’t have had a federal career over the last 10 years without (Trudeau’s) leadership,” said Duguid.

“He did some amazing things for our country and in January he put our country first and helped reflect a wave of patriotism and pride in Canada and did us very proud.”

Duguid was named environment and climate change minister after Carney was voted in as Liberal leader in March.

He said Carney has the skills, experience and calm resolve needed to represent Canadians as the country continues to navigate ongoing tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump.

The NDP was set to win a single riding in Manitoba, down from three, as Leah Gazan edged out a Liberal challenging to keep her seat in Winnipeg Centre.

The Conservatives held half of Manitoba's 14 ridings prior to the election and appeared on track to stay at seven seats.

Five Conservative incumbents were set to hold onto their seats, while Grant Jackson won in Brandon-Souris to replace fellow Tory Larry Maguire, who did not seek re-election.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 28, 2025.

Brittany Hobson, The Canadian Press