The eyes of the province are glued to the Harbour City, as the outcome of Nanaimo’s byelection could trigger a province-wide general election.

With the NDP-Green Party alliance holding a razor thin edge in the Legislature, a win Wednesday by Liberal Tony Harris would give the Liberals 43 seats and leave the Legislature deadlocked, meaning the Speaker of the House Darryl Plecas, would be called on to provide a tie breaking vote, if needed.

David Black is a professor at Royal Roads University. He says the outcome of this one byelection, could have a so-called “butterfly effect”.

“One small instance that might seem insignificant, has ripple effects that change the whole calculus for B.C. politics. A butterfly flaps its wings and we have a tornado half way around the world.”

That ripple effect created by the deadlock -- triggered if a confidence vote in the Legislature was defeated. But political pundits say while this is potentially unchartered territory, convention calls for the Speaker, Darryl Plecas, to vote in support of the government on confidence matters. 

UVic political scientist Michael Prince says the stakes are potentially very high in the Nanaimo byelection, but he doesn’t think a Liberal win there would topple the government, at least not in the near future.

“I think in the short term this would be a pretty tight tense legislature," said Prince. "There would be perfect attendance required by all MLA's, but it could still work, it would be a workable Legislature.”

Prince predicts if the Liberals do prevail in the traditional NDP stronghold, the Speaker would follow convention and vote in support of the government during next month’s budget, a vote considered a confidence vote. 

Prince says if the byelection leads to a tie in the Legislature, the earliest British Columbians would go to the polls would be this spring, but likely it would be much later.

“There’s going to be a lot of talk, I think a lot of silly talk about maybe a spring election, but I think the earliest we'd see an election might be later this year, in the fall, is the earliest I can imagine, or probably more in 2020.”

Polls close at 8 p.m. Follow CTV News Vancouver Island on Twitter and Facebook for up-to-the-minute results, and watch a results recap show tonight at 11 p.m.